Turkey and the Russian Invasion of Ukraine: an Interplay of Bloc (de)formation, Recognition and Asymmetric Interdependencies?

Abstract

This piece answers some of the issues (such as the potential emergence of new blocs, the role of interdependencies, and Western recognition) raised in Debating the War in Ukraine by examining Turkey's role in the war in Ukraine. It argues that Turkey's somewhat balanced policy in the war, trying to please both Ukraine and Russia, stems from three main considerations. First, Turkey's economic and strategic asymmetric interdependency (in Syria) on Russia prevents Turkey from taking actions that might run against Russian interests in the war in Ukraine. Second, Turkey's balanced attitude legitimizes Turkey's position to undertake mediation efforts to end the war, fulfill the global leadership role envisioned by the JDP-led Turkey, and also has the potential to garner Turkey some Western recognition, which might not be domestically translated. Finally, the balanced attitude is also a well-poised strategy for Turkey to garner a stake in the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine.