The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and behavioral restrictions on electricity consumption and the daily demand curve in Turkey

Abstract

The rapid spread of COVID-19 has severely impacted many sectors, including the electricity sector. The reliability of the electricity sector is critical to the economy, health, and welfare of society; therefore, supply and demand need to be balanced in real-time, and the impact of unexpected factors should be analyzed. During the pandemic, behavioral restrictions such as lockdowns, closure of factories, schools, and shopping malls, and changing habits, such as shifted work and leisure hours at home, significantly affected the demand structure. In this research, the restrictions and their corresponding timing are classified and mapped with the Turkish electricity demand data to analyze the estimated impact of the restrictions on total demand and daily demand profile. A modulated Fourier Series Expansion evaluates deviations from normal conditions in the aggregate demand and the daily consumption profile. The aggregate demand shows a significant decrease in the early phase of the pandemic, during the period March-June 2020. The shape of the daily demand curve is analyzed to estimate how much demand shifted from daytime to night-time. A population-based restriction index is proposed to analyze the relationship between the strength and coverage of the restrictions and the total demand. The persistency of the changes in the daily demand curve in the post-contingency period is analyzed. These findings imply that new scheduling approaches for daily and weekly loads are required to avoid supply-demand mismatches in the future. The longterm policy implications for the energy transition and lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic experience are also presented.