Browsing by Author "Burak, Selmin"

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Citation Count: 13
Evaluation of irrigation methods in Soke Plain with HF-AHP-PROMETHEE II hybrid MCDM method
(Elsevier, 2022) Samanlıoğlu, Funda; Samanlıoğlu, Funda; Ulker, Duygu
Soke Plain (Turkey) is one of the two plains where cotton production is the highest in Turkey, the leading country for cotton production in the Mediterranean Basin. The cropping pattern in Soke Plain is dominated by cotton with a ratio of 97%. The overall irrigation scheme is equipped with conventional systems (i.e., surface, furrow) whose efficiency is approximately 50% due to high evaporation and physical losses. Water efficiency improve-ment in cotton irrigation necessitates a thorough evaluation of the agricultural water management for Soke Plain, a water-scarce region under drought threat. In this paper, a hybrid multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method is presented for the evaluation and selection of irrigation methods. This process involves various potentially conflicting qualitative and quantitative criteria, therefore, a hybrid MCDM method such as HF-AHP-PROMETHEE II is needed to make decisions. In HF-AHP-PROMETHEE II, Hesitant Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (HF-AHP) is first implemented to determine importance weights of criteria and then Hesitant Fuzzy Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enriching Evaluations II (HF-PROMETHEE II) is utilized to assess and rank the irrigation method alternatives. For comparison analysis, HF-AHP-TOPSIS (HF-AHP-Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) method is also implemented to the same problem. A case study is presented where five irrigation method alternatives in Soke Plain are assessed by five expert decision-makers (DMs), based on fifteen evaluation criteria. Sprinkler is found to be the first ranked irrigation method among five alternatives with both HF-AHP-PROMETHEE II and HF-AHP-TOPSIS resulting in the same ranking. The selection of this irrigation technique by the expert DMs is compliant with prevailing regional features related to hydro-logic, climatic, environmental conditions and with regard to cotton, one of the highest water-consuming crops.
Citation Count: 21
Evaluation Of Water Supply Alternatives For Istanbul Using Forecasting And Multi-Criteria Decision Making Methods
(Elsevier Ltd, 2020) Hekimoğlu, Mustafa; Erbay, Barbaros; Hekimoğlu, Mustafa; Burak, Selmin
Water scarcity is one of the most serious problems of the future due to increasing urbanization and water demand. Urban water planners need to balance increasing water demand with water resources that are under increasing pressure due to climate change and water pollution. Decision makers are forced to select the most appropriate water management alternative with respect to multiple, conflicting criteria based on short and long term projections of water demand in the future. In this paper, we consider water management in Istanbul, a megacity with a population of 15 million. Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to develop a method combining demand forecasting with multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods to evaluate five different water supply alternatives with respect to seven criteria using opinions of experts and stakeholders from different sectors. Methodology: To combine forecasting with MCDM, we design a data collection method in which we share our demand forecasts with our experts. For demand forecasting, we compare Holt-Winters, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (S-ARIMA), and feedforward Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models and select S-ARIMA as the best forecasting model for monthly water consumption data. Generated demand projections are shared with experts from different sectors and collected data is evaluated with Fuzzy Theory using two distinct MCDM models: Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE). Also our analyses are complemented with two sensitivity analyses. Findings: Our results indicate that greywater reuse is the best alternative to satisfy the growing water demand of the city whereas all experts find desalination and inter-basin water transfer as the least attractive solutions. In addition, we adopt the PROMETHEE GDSS procedure to obtain a GAIA plane indicating consensus among experts. Furthermore, we find that our results are moderately sensitive to the number of experts and they are insensitive to changes in experts’ evaluations. Novelty: To the best of our knowledge, our study is the first one incorporating water demand and supply management concepts into the evaluation of alternatives. From a methodological perspective, water demand projections have never been used in an MCDM study in the literature. Also, this paper contributes to the literature with a mathematical construction of consensus and Monte Carlo simulations for the sufficiency of experts consulted in a study.
Citation Count: 1
Modeling of Wind Effects on Stratified Flows in Open Channels: A Model for the Istanbul Strait (Bosphorus)
(2016) Bilge, Ayşe Hümeyra; Kirkil, Gökhan; Burak, Selmin; İncegül, Metehan
Stratified flows in open channels arise as a result of density or surface level differences. If the channel is connected to a basin at one or both ends, strong winds originating from the basin cause the "wind setup" effect that increases the water level at the entrance of the channel. On the other hand, along the channel, persistent winds in the upper layer flow direction lead to an increase of the drift velocity and to a decrease in upper layer flow depth. The Istanbul Strait (Bosphorus) connecting the Black and the Marmara Seas, is characterized by a stratified flow caused by the surface level and salinity difference between these basins, consisting of a southward upper layer flow and a northward lower layer flow. Along the strait, there are three hydraulic control points; the north sill, a midway contraction reach and the south sill. Under wind effects, the northern and southern entrances of the strait behave as an estuary whereas the midway reach to the south of the contraction acts as as an open channel. In winter, when the sea level difference is relatively low, the wind setup due to southerly winds may cause a blockage and even reversal of the upper layer flow. On the other hand in spring when there is excessive river discharge, northerly winds increase the influx of Black Sea waters into the strait and may lead to a blockage of the lower layer. We claim that strong northerly winds may cause a decrease of the upper layer depth beyond the contraction and we propose a simple model for its estimation in terms of the wind and water flow speeds.
Citation Count: 9
Optimization of wastewater treatment systems for growing industrial parks
(Elsevier, 2023) Hekimoğlu, Mustafa; Isler, Zulal; Hekimoglu, Mustafa; Burak, Selmin; Karli, Deniz; Yucekaya, Ahmet; Ediger, Volkan S.
Wastewater treatment is one of the crucial functions of industrial parks as wastewater from industrial facilities usually contains toxic compounds that can cause damage to the environment. To control their environmental loads, industrial parks make investment decisions for wastewater treatment plants. For this, they need to consider technical and economic factors as well as future growth projections as substantial construction and operational costs of wastewater treatment plants have to be shared by all companies in an industrial park. In this paper, we consider the long-term capacity planning problem for wastewater treatment facilities of a stochastically growing industrial park. By explicitly modeling randomness in the arrival of new tenants and their random wastewater discharges, our model calculates the future mean and variance of wastewater flow in the industrial park. Mean and variance are used in a Mixed Integer Programming Model to optimize wastewater treatment plant selection over a long planning horizon (30 years). By fitting our first model to empirical data from an industrial park in Turkey, we find that considering the variance of wastewater load is critical for long-term planning. Also, we quantify the economic significance of lowering wastewater discharges which can be achieved by water recycling or interplant water exchange.
Citation Count: 0
Ranking willingness to reuse water in cotton irrigation with hybrid MCDM methods: Soke plain case study
(Elsevier, 2024) Samanlıoğlu, Funda; Samanlioglu, Funda; Ulker, Duygu; Kup, Eyup Tolunay
Soke Plain, located within the B & uuml;y & uuml;k Menderes River Basin is one of the highest producers of cotton in T & uuml;rkiye. The overall irrigation water supply is based on scarce conventional water resources that are being depleted at an increasing pace due to climate change impacts in B. Menderes. The inclusive objective of this research is to pave the way for a "water efficiency action plan" incorporating non-conventional (alternative) water resources for irrigation in Soke Plain to address adaptive management. Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) principles help decision makers (DMs) to identify and apply the most adequate alternatives among other possible ones in resource planning processes. Therefore, the preference ranking of DMs among possible water resource alternatives for irrigation is vital for implementation. This paper marks the first instance of using a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method to evaluate both conventional and non-conventional water resource alternatives for cotton irrigation. The evaluation and ranking of water resource alternatives is processed using the hybrid MCDM method, integration of "Hesitant Fuzzy-Analytic Hierarchy Process" (HF-AHP) and "Hesitant Fuzzy Evaluation based on Distance from Average Solution" (HF-EDAS), namely HF-AHP-EDAS. This procedure implies several possibly contradictory qualitative and quantitative criteria, incorporates ambiguity, vagueness, and hesitancy in decision-makers' decisions, and achieves a consistent, dependable ranking of alternatives. Eight different water resources for irrigation are evaluated by 5 experts, for 15 assessment criteria, in Soke Plain. Conventional water resources blended with drainage water is concluded to be the best irrigation water resource alternative, with HF-AHP-EDAS and also with HF-AHP-PROMETHEE II (Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enriching Evaluations II), that is used for comparison analysis. This choice aligns well with the outlined arguments, culminating in an overall result deemed compliant with the field survey.
Citation Count: 1
Thornthwaite's Method for the Computation of the Water Balance
(Springer International Publishing Ag, 2022) Bilge, Ayşe Hümeyra; Bilge, Ayse Humeyra; Ulker, Duygu
Evapotranspiration is one of the crucial processes on water balance under the effect of meteorological and environmental factors and soil and vegetation characteristics. Thornhtwaite's method for the evaluation of the water balance at a given place is related to the temperature, precipitation data at monthly or daily intervals and on the information on the water holding capacity of the soil at that place. The method is based on equating the sum of evapotranspiration and runoff to the sum of precipitation and soil moisture. In Thornthwaite's method, most steps of the calculation are expressed by mathematical formulas but the values of the amount of water retained in the soil as a function of potential evapotranspiration (PE), for each value of the water holding capacity (WHC) of the soil are given by tables. In this paper we present an overview of the method and we present mathematical formulas that fit the data of the of these tables, to express the relation between water retained in soil and potential evapotranspiration (PE) for different water holding capacity (WHC).