Browsing by Author "Cengiz, Doruk"

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Citation - WoS: 0
Counterfactual Reconciliation: Incorporating Aggregation Constraints for More Accurate Causal Effect Estimates
(Elsevier, 2024) Cengiz, Doruk; Tekgüç, Hasan; Tekguc, Hasan
We extend the scope of the forecast reconciliation literature and use its tools in the context of causal inference. Researchers are interested in both the average treatment effect on the treated and treatment effect heterogeneity. We show that ex post correction of the counterfactual estimates using the aggregation constraints that stem from the hierarchical or grouped structure of the data is likely to yield more accurate estimates. Building on the geometric interpretation of forecast reconciliation, we provide additional insights into the exact factors determining the size of the accuracy improvement due to the reconciliation. We experiment with U.S. GDP and employment data. We find that the reconciled treatment effect estimates tend to be closer to the truth than the original (base) counterfactual estimates even in cases where the aggregation constraints are non-linear. Consistent with our theoretical expectations, improvement is greater when machine learning methods are used. (c) 2022 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Citation - WoS: 15
Citation - Scopus: 14
Is It Merely a Labor Supply Shock? Impacts of Syrian Migrants on Local Economies in Turkey
(Sage Publications, 2021) Tekgüç, Hasan; Tekgüç, Hasan
The authors use the occurrence of a large and geographically varying inflow of more than 2.5 million Syrian migrants to Turkey between 2012 and 2015 to study the effect of migration on local economies. They do not find adverse employment or wage effects for native-born Turkish workers overall or for those without a high school degree. These results are robust to a range of strategies to construct reliable control groups. To explain the findings, the authors document the importance of three migration-induced demand channels: the complementarity between native and migrant labor, housing demand, and increased entrepreneurial activities.