Browsing by Author "Hekimoglu, Mustafa"

Now showing 1 - 12 of 12

Citation Count: 1
Admission control for a capacitated supply system with real-time replenishment information
(Elsevier, 2023) Hekimoğlu, Mustafa; Hekimoglu, Mustafa; Dekker, Rommert
Control towers can provide real-time information on logistic processes to support decision making. The question however, is how to make use of it and how much it may save. We consider this issue for a company supplying expensive spare parts and which has limited production capacity. Besides deciding on base stock levels, it can accept or reject customers. The real-time status information is captured by a k-Erlang distributed replenishment lead time. First we model the problem with patient customers as an infinite-horizon Markov decision process and minimize the total expected discounted cost. We prove that the optimal policy can be characterized using two thresholds: a base work storage level that determines when ordering takes place and an acceptance work storage level that determines when demand of customers should be accepted. In a numerical study, we show that using real-time status information on the replenishment item and adopting admission control can lead to significant cost savings. The cost savings are highest when the optimal admission threshold is a work storage level with a replenishment item halfway in process. This finding is different from the literature, where it is stated that the cost increase of ignoring real-time information is negligible under either the lost sales or the backordering case. Next we study the problem where customers are of limited patience. We find that the optimal admission policy is not always of threshold type. This is different from the literature which assumes an exponential production lead time.
Citation Count: 0
Decoding compositional complexity: Identifying composers using a model fusion-based approach with nonlinear signal processing and chaotic dynamics
(Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd, 2024) Baykaş, Tunçer; Hekimoğlu, Mustafa; Hekimoglu, Mustafa; Pekcan, Onder; Tuncay, Gonul Pacaci
Music, a universal medium that effortlessly transcends the confines of language and culture, serves as a vessel for the distinctive expression of a composer's ingenuity, particularly palpable through the elaborate symphony of melodies, harmonies, and rhythms. This phenomenon is acutely observable in the realm of Turkish Classical Music, where the identification of individual composers poses a formidable challenge due to a confluence of diverse stylistic expressions and sophisticated techniques. Shaped by centuries of cultural interchanges, this genre is celebrated for its convoluted rhythmic frameworks and deep melodic modes, often exhibiting fractal characteristics that compound the complexity of composer classification based on mere audio signals. In response to these complexities, this study introduces an advanced analytical paradigm that amalgamates Multi-resolution analysis, spectral entropy assessments, and a spectrum of multidimensional chaotic and statistical descriptors. By invoking chaos theory, the research delineates distinct patterns and features inherent to musical compositions, subsequently deploying these discoveries for composer categorization. Employing a model fusion-based strategy, the approach utilizes esteemed base estimators for section-level probabilistic determinations, subsequently amalgamated at the song level through a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network model to classify a corpus of 380 compositions from 15 distinct composers. The results of this study not only highlight the efficacy of chaos-based approaches in Musical Information Retrieval but also provide a nuanced understanding of the unique characteristics of Turkish Classical Music, thus advancing the boundaries of how musicological data is scrutinized and conceptualized within scholarly discourse.
Citation Count: 2
Dual sourcing models with stock-out dependent substitution
(Elsevier, 2023) Hekimoğlu, Mustafa; Scheller-Wolf, Alan
Companies use different criteria such as lead time, cost and quality to evaluate suppliers; often using multiple suppliers with the aim of reducing stockout risk. But in many industries there may be significant differences between the quality levels of different suppliers. Thus quality-sensitive companies may prefer an item from a primary supplier, but be forced to accept substitute products of lesser quality in case of a stock-out. Motivated by an example in the aviation industry, we introduce a Dual Sourcing problem With Stock-out dependent substitution (DSWS) which includes quality differences. Due to nonconvexity of the multi-period model, analytical characterization of the optimal policy appears intractable. To overcome this problem, we prove a relation between the optimal cost of DSWS and costs of three other problems -dual sourcing without substitution and single sourcing problems with and without backlogging. This leads us to propose the use of the dual index policy (and a variant) as heuristics for DSWS, and to develop an algorithm for parameter optimization of our heuristics. Extensive numerical experiments show that the dual index policy outperforms all other candidate solutions from the literature by at least 8%. Our experiments show that the utilization of the back-up supplier leads to substantial cost savings and service rate increase, especially in case of high differences between holding cost rates of different quality items.& COPY; 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Citation Count: 1
The Implementation of Smart Contract via Blockchain Technology in Supply Chain Management: A Case Study from The Automotive Industry in Turkey
(IEEE, 2021) Hekimoğlu, Mustafa; Bolat, Serdar; Bozkurt, Hayreddin; Yucekaya, Ahmet; Hekimoglu, Mustafa
Blockchain Technology, underlined as the most revolutionizing innovation after the internet, is still in the growth phase and waits for the practitioners to enlighten its productivity promises. In the current environment, volatile profits require a more digitalized work experience and competitive advantages to get ahead in such a highly competitive automotive industry and innovative applications that lead to more simplified operation management. Accordingly, this paper aims to present a case study via use cases in which Blockchain has been used and smart contract as the sought-out innovation and its application for the digitized spare parts disposal legal process. Blockchain Technology in the automotive sector is discussed by focusing on the supply management process of an automotive company's processes in Turkey. Blockchain technology is expected to develop and simplify spare parts-related transactions in the automotive industry, which deals with more than 500K stock keeping units per company. Paper presents the current, future, and ideal states of spare parts transactions with Blockchain adoption. The implemented application enables the development of an enterprise-level blockchain platform with hyper-ledger fabric as an open-source. The distributed ledger technology provides a smart contract system between actors of the existed supply chain process. The study aims to show the potential of Blockchain Technology in delivering a high degree of competitive advantage especially for automotive service providers with regards to its features related to providing security, transparency, traceability, cost reduction, more efficient data storage in dense supply based industries.
Citation Count: 17
Maintenance optimization for a single wind turbine component under time-varying costs
(Elsevier, 2022) Hekimoğlu, Mustafa; Dekker, Rommert; Hekimoglu, Mustafa; Eruguz, Ayse Sena
In this paper, we introduce a new, single-component model for maintenance optimization under timevarying costs, specifically oriented at offshore wind turbine maintenance. We extend the standard age replacement policy (ARP), block replacement policy (BRP) and modified block replacement policy (MBRP) to address time-varying costs. We prove that an optimal maintenance policy under time-varying costs is a time-dependent ARP policy. Via a discretization of time, the optimal time-dependent ARP can be found using a linear programming formulation. We also present mixed integer linear programming models for parameter optimization of BRP and MBRP. We present a business case and apply our policies for maintenance planning of a wind turbine gearbox and show that we can achieve savings up-to 23%.(c) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ )
Citation Count: 0
Markdown Optimization with Generalized Weighted Least Squares Estimation
(Springernature, 2022) Hekimoğlu, Mustafa
Retailers increasingly apply price markdowns for their seasonal products. Efficiency of these markdown applications is driven by the accuracy of empirical models, especially toward the end of a selling season. In the literature, recent sales are recognized to be more important than older sales data for estimating the current period's demand for a given markdown level. The importance difference between the weeks of a selling season is addressed by weighted least squares (WLS) method with continuous weight functions of time. This study suggests a generalization of the weight functions and a method for optimizing their shape and discretization parameters to stimulate the predictive accuracy of models. We find that addressing the importance difference of recent sales observations using our generalized weight functions improves the forecast accuracy by up to 20%, and most of the improvement stems from our weight discretization method.
Citation Count: 2
Modeling repair demand in existence of a nonstationary installed base
(Elsevier, 2023) Hekimoğlu, Mustafa; Karli, Deniz
Life cycles of products consist of 3 phases, namely growth, maturity, and decline phases. Modeling repair demand is particularly difficult in the growth and decline stages due to nonstationarity. In this study, we suggest respective stochastic models that capture the dynamics of repair demand in these two phases. We apply our theory to two different operations management problems. First, using the moments of spare parts demand, we suggest an algorithm that selects a parametric distribution from the hypergeometric family (Ord, 1967) for each period in time. We utilize the algorithm in a single echelon inventory control problem. Second, we focus on investment decisions of Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) to extend economic lifetimes of products with technology upgrades. Our results indicate that the second moment is sufficient for growing customer bases, whereas using the third moment doubles the approximation quality of theoretical distributions for a declining customer base. From a cost minimization perspective, using higher moments of demand leads to savings up to 13.6% compared to the single-moment approach. Also, we characterize the optimal investment policy for lifetime extension decisions from risk-neutral and risk-averse perspectives. We find that there exists a critical level of investment cost and installed base size for profitability of lifetime extension for OEMs. From a managerial point of view, we find that a risk-neutral decision maker finds the lifetime extension problem profitable. In contrast, even a slight risk aversion can make the lifetime extension decision economically undesirable.
Citation Count: 0
On spare parts demand and the installed base concept: A theoretical approach
(Elsevier, 2023) Hekimoğlu, Mustafa; Frenk, J. B. G.; Hekimoglu, Mustafa
Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) aim to design their service supply chain before the introduction of their products to maximize their aftersales business revenues, reduce waste and achieve sustainability. In this study, we develop a stochastic model that unifies the installed base, i.e., the number of products in use, spare parts demand, and the number of discarded products within a single modeling framework based on three product characteristics: sales rate, usage time, and failure rate. Our model describes the installed base and spare part demand evolution over the entire life cycle of a parent product using stochastic point processes. At the same time we propose under very general assumptions on the cdf of the usage time and the mean arrival functions of the sales and failure processes an easy bisection procedure to compute the time at which the expected installed base and rate of the expected demand for spare parts is maximal. Our numerical experiments show that the volume of aftersales services increases in the expected usage time if the products face an increasing failure rate. The same experiments also reveal a 20 percent shift of the time at which the expected installed base is maximal in case the expected usage time is increased threefold. At the same time, we observe a boosting effect of the intensity of the sales process on this point in time.
Citation Count: 9
Optimization of wastewater treatment systems for growing industrial parks
(Elsevier, 2023) Hekimoğlu, Mustafa; Isler, Zulal; Hekimoglu, Mustafa; Burak, Selmin; Karli, Deniz; Yucekaya, Ahmet; Ediger, Volkan S.
Wastewater treatment is one of the crucial functions of industrial parks as wastewater from industrial facilities usually contains toxic compounds that can cause damage to the environment. To control their environmental loads, industrial parks make investment decisions for wastewater treatment plants. For this, they need to consider technical and economic factors as well as future growth projections as substantial construction and operational costs of wastewater treatment plants have to be shared by all companies in an industrial park. In this paper, we consider the long-term capacity planning problem for wastewater treatment facilities of a stochastically growing industrial park. By explicitly modeling randomness in the arrival of new tenants and their random wastewater discharges, our model calculates the future mean and variance of wastewater flow in the industrial park. Mean and variance are used in a Mixed Integer Programming Model to optimize wastewater treatment plant selection over a long planning horizon (30 years). By fitting our first model to empirical data from an industrial park in Turkey, we find that considering the variance of wastewater load is critical for long-term planning. Also, we quantify the economic significance of lowering wastewater discharges which can be achieved by water recycling or interplant water exchange.
Citation Count: 2
Optimum utilization of on-demand manufacturing and laser polishing in existence of supply disruption risk
(Elsevier, 2022) Ulutan, Durul; Hekimoğlu, Mustafa; Kaya, Burak Erkan; Hekimoglu, Mustafa
3D printing has moved from being a rapid prototyping tool to an additive manufacturing method within the last decade. Additive manufacturing can satisfy the need in dire situations where spare parts distribution is an issue but access to a 3D printer is much more likely and rapid than access to original parts. Managing inventories of spare parts can be tackled with more ease thanks to the reduced part types with additive manufacturing. While quality (in terms of reliability) of additively manufactured spare parts in terms of mechanical properties seem to be lower than original parts (particularly due to the inherent staircase appearance and the corresponding stress concentration zones that can lead to premature fatigue failure), use of post-processing subtractive techniques to correct such surface irregularities are found to improve reliability. While each process adds another layer of complexity to the cost minimization problem, demand uncertainty and risk of supply disruption represent the modern global problems faced recently. The problem tackled in this study is the joint optimization of the supply reliability considering the effect of laser polishing parameters and the demand uncertainty. In this problem, a condition of random breakdowns of identical products is considered. Also, the original supplier of machine components is subject to exogenous disruptions, such as strikes, raw material scarcity, or the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the optimum control policy with the right cost parameters was shown via numerical experiments originated from mathematical analyses. This optimality can be critical in managing the system in the best possible way, particularly during times of unforeseen circumstances such as pandemics. (C) 2022 Society of Manufacturing Engineers (SME). Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of the NAMRI/SME.
Citation Count: 0
Residual LSTM neural network for time dependent consecutive pitch string recognition from spectrograms: a study on Turkish classical music makams
(Springer, 2023) Baykaş, Tunçer; Hekimoğlu, Mustafa; Baykas, Tuncer; Hekimoglu, Mustafa; Pekcan, Onder
Turkish classical music, characterized by 'makam', specific melodic configurations delineated by sequential pitches and intervals, is rich in cultural significance and poses a considerable challenge in identifying a musical piece's particular makam. This identification complexity remains an issue even for experienced musical experts, emphasizing the need for automated and accurate classification techniques. In response, we introduce a residual LSTM neural network model that classifies makams by leveraging the distinct sequential pitch patterns discerned within various audio segments over spectrogram-based inputs. This model's design uniquely merges the spatial capabilities of two-dimensional convolutional layers with the temporal understanding of one-dimensional convolutional and LSTM mechanisms embedded within a residual framework. Such an integrated approach allows for detailed temporal analysis of shifting frequencies, as revealed in logarithmically scaled spectrograms, and is adept at recognizing consecutive pitch patterns within segments. Employing stratified cross-validation on a comprehensive dataset encompassing 1154 pieces spanning 15 unique makams, we found that our model demonstrated an accuracy of 95.60% for a subset of 9 makams and 89.09% for all 15 makams. Our approach demonstrated consistent precision even when distinguishing makam pairs known for their closely related pitch sequences. To further validate our model's prowess, we conducted benchmark tests against established methodologies found in current literature, providing a comparative assessment of our proposed workflow's abilities.
Citation Count: 3
Stockout risk estimation and expediting for repairable spare parts
(Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, 2022) Hekimoğlu, Mustafa; Kok, A. Gurhan; Sahin, Mustafa
Stockouts of repairable spares usually lead to significant downtime costs. Managers of Maintenance Repair Organizations (MROs) seek advance indicators of future stockouts which might allow them to take proactive actions that are beneficial for achieving target service levels with reasonable costs. Among such (proactive) actions, the most common, and the cheapest one is expediting existing repair processes. In this study, we develop an advance stockout risk estimation system for repairable spare parts. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to estimate the future stockout risk of a repairable part. The method considers different statistics, e.g. the number of ongoing repair processes, demand rate, repair time, etc. to estimate stockout risk of a repairable part for a given planning horizon. In our field tests with empirical data, the suggested method overperforms two heuristic approaches and achieves accuracy rates of 63% for 15 day-planning horizon and 83% for 45 days. We also suggest a repairable inventory control system including repair expediting, inspection and con-demnation processes. To optimize the control parameters we suggest a simple algorithm considering two constraints: Target service level and maximum fraction of expedited demand. The algorithm is proved to be efficient for finding the optimum policy parameter in our tests with empirical data. Tests with empirical data suggest savings up to 8%. Both systems are implemented at an MRO as building blocks of a inventory control tower. The impact of the implementation is assessed with empirical simulations and verified from the financial indicators of the company.