WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12469/4465

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Browsing WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu by Author "Acar, Sevil"

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    Article
    Citation - WoS: 38
    Citation - Scopus: 45
    Potential Effects of the Eu's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on the Turkish Economy
    (Springer, 2022) Acar, Sevil; Asici, Ahmet Atil; Yeldan, A. Erinc
    In December 2019, the EU announced the European Green Deal (EGD) to create a climate-neutral continent by 2050. Accordingly, the EU Emission Trading System (ETS) will be revised to maintain economic growth against possible losses in competitiveness, leading to carbon leakage. Carbon border adjustment (CBA) is one of the mechanisms proposed to tackle the carbon leakage problem. In this paper, we provide a first-order estimate of the potential impacts of a possible CBA across production sectors and build a dynamic, multi-sectoral applied general equilibrium (AGE) model to study the overall macroeconomic impact of the EGD on the Turkish economy. Then, we extend our analysis to document the potential benefits of a more active climate policy. The model is in the Walrasian tradition wherein aggregate supply and demand actions are simulated with the interplay of relative prices to bring equilibrium in the markets for goods, for labor, and for foreign exchange. Constructed around 24 production sectors, the model accommodates flexible, multi-level functional forms to link production activities with gaseous emissions, a government entity to maintain taxation, and public expenditures, as well as administration of environmental policy instruments, all within an open-economy macroeconomic environment. Our results suggest that the potential adverse impact of the CBA on the Turkish economy would range between 2.7 and 3.6% loss of the GDP by 2030 over the business-as-(un)usual base path. We also document that under an alternative scenario through which Turkey is modeled as an active agent in the international climate policy arena embedding decarbonization into her official macroeconomic policy agenda, she can achieve a superior pathway for national income and a reduced carbon burden.
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    Article
    Citation - WoS: 12
    Citation - Scopus: 15
    Transforming Türkiye's Power System: An Assessment of Economic, Social, and External Impacts of an Energy Transition by 2030
    (Elsevier, 2023) Acar, Sevil; Kat, Bora; Rogner, Mathis; Saygin, Deger; Taranto, Yael; Yeldan, A. Erinc
    Türkiye has the long-term goal of transforming its power system to one that is cleaner, more secure and more affordable. According to this paper's scenario analyses, low-cost renewables can supply 55% of T & uuml;rkiye's total electricity demand. Coupled with the electrification of end-use sectors, energy efficiency can reduce total power demand by 10% compared to a business as usual scenario by 2030. The paper assesses the social, economic, and environmental impacts of this transformation by soft linking a power system model with an applied computable general equilibrium model, using an updated input and output dataset, and employing a novel analysis of job creation and fossil fuel externalities. The power system transformation significantly improves social welfare with net socioeconomic benefits estimated at 1% of GDP by 2030. Positive impacts include a reduction in human health and climate change externalities by a third, which are further enhanced by wage income growth that is driven by higher skilled and better paid jobs. A carbon tax emerges as a critical instrument to realize these benefits whilst reducing the power sector's emissions to 2030. The assessment should be expanded with more ambitious clean energy technology deployment for the entire energy system to operationalize T & uuml;rkiye's Paris-aligned 2053 net-zero emission target and just transition policies.