Browsing by Author "Tekguc, Hasan"

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Citation - WoS: 0
Counterfactual Reconciliation: Incorporating Aggregation Constraints for More Accurate Causal Effect Estimates
(Elsevier, 2024) Cengiz, Doruk; Tekgüç, Hasan; Tekguc, Hasan
We extend the scope of the forecast reconciliation literature and use its tools in the context of causal inference. Researchers are interested in both the average treatment effect on the treated and treatment effect heterogeneity. We show that ex post correction of the counterfactual estimates using the aggregation constraints that stem from the hierarchical or grouped structure of the data is likely to yield more accurate estimates. Building on the geometric interpretation of forecast reconciliation, we provide additional insights into the exact factors determining the size of the accuracy improvement due to the reconciliation. We experiment with U.S. GDP and employment data. We find that the reconciled treatment effect estimates tend to be closer to the truth than the original (base) counterfactual estimates even in cases where the aggregation constraints are non-linear. Consistent with our theoretical expectations, improvement is greater when machine learning methods are used. (c) 2022 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Citation - WoS: 5
Citation - Scopus: 7
The evolution of unprocessed food inflation in Turkey: an exploratory study on select products
(Cambridge Univ Press, 2022) Tekgüç, Hasan; Demirkılıç, Serkan; Tekguc, Hasan
Food price increases stem from economic, agricultural, and political factors. Understanding the dynamics behind the food price formation process and assessing how potential factors contribute to food price changes will significantly affect policies formulated to manage food price increases. High food inflation rates have been a chronic problem in Turkey over the last decade, with unprocessed food prices rising faster than general price levels. In this article, we use exploratory analyses based on economic principles rather than econometric analyses. First, our results indicate that exchange rates are strongly associated with domestic food prices due to dependence on imported inputs. Second, deep-dive analyses on select products show that global price movements and pass-through prices from producer to consumer are not solely responsible for price increases.
Citation - WoS: 7
Citation - Scopus: 8
A Multidimensional Approach To the Gender Gap in Poverty: an Application for Turkey
(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2022) Tekguc, Hasan; Tekgüç, Hasan; Akbulut, Bengi
Conventional poverty measures have long been criticized as a poor gauge of quality of life. Household-level income or expenditure data used in these measures are silent on intrahousehold inequalities and capture means to an end rather than outcomes and opportunities individuals face. This article constructs a multidimensional poverty index (MPI) to address these problems. It calculates multidimensional poverty for Turkey in four equally weighted dimensions: education, health, employment, and household living conditions. The study introduces employment as a distinct dimension of well-being, which is especially pertinent for the gender gap in poverty in the Turkish context. It finds a significant (30-34 percent) gender poverty gap, which is gradually narrowing over time. However, there is very little convergence between regions. Finally, results show households with multidimensionally poor women and non-poor men as the most common sub-group and an increase in the share of households with no poor members.
Citation - WoS: 0
Citation - Scopus: 0
Pious People, Patronage Jobs, and the Labor Market: Turkey Under Erdoğan's Akp
(Springer, 2024) Tekgüç, Hasan; Tekguc, Hasan; Yagci, Alper H.
In fragmented societies, electoral competition often entails using public office to advance group interests. Using individual-level polling data from 2012 to 2018, we analyze whether age cohorts entering the labor market before and after the religiously conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) assumed power in Turkey experienced different public employment outcomes based on their religion and religiosity. Our analysis reveals that under the AKP rule, pious Sunnis (who constitute a large part of the society) significantly increased their presence in public sector employment (notably among women) and in high-status private jobs (notably among men). Furthermore, the subset of highly religious Sunnis (only 9.3% of the population) improved their likelihood of being employed in the public sector compared to other pious Sunnis and everyone else. Our findings are likely to be driven by the lifting of the headscarf ban in public employment and AKP's strategic use of public employment and resources to reward like-minded groups in both the public and private spheres.
Citation - WoS: 1
Citation - Scopus: 1
Poverty and Income Distribution Incidence of the Covid-19 Outbreak: Investigating Socially Responsible Policy Alternatives for Turkey
(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2023) Tekguc, Hasan; Tekgüç, Hasan; Unsal, Ezgi B.; Yeldan, Erinc
To counterbalance the deep systemic global crisis triggered by the COVID-19, many countries introduced a vast arsenal of fiscal policy instruments coupled with monetary accommodation. Yet, Turkey's response had almost exclusively relied on credit expansion and loan guarantees while minimizing the role of fiscal policy. Within that context, this article has three interrelated objectives. Firstly, we evaluate the effects of the crisis and the implemented policies on poverty and income distribution. Second, we measure the macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19 on the Turkish economy through a general equilibrium model. We find that these policies had a limited impact on reducing crisis-induced poverty. Finally, we propose alternatives to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 crisis, which are compatible with fiscal constraints. Our results suggest that by pursuing a targeted fiscal income transfer programme covering wage earners and small-sized enterprises, Turkey could have achieved a more egalitarian and effective response to the Covid-19 crisis.
Citation - WoS: 0
Citation - Scopus: 0
Toward a Green Income Support Policy: Investigating Social and Fiscal Alternatives for Turkey
(Cambridge Univ Press, 2023) Dogan, Berna; Tekgüç, Hasan; Tekguc, Hasan; Yeldan, Alp Erinç; Yeldan, Alp Erinc
The limited success of employment-based social protection measures under the diverging patterns of post-COVID-19 recovery rekindled interest in a social policy framework known as the Basic Income (BI) support. We test the potential of the BI program using five alternative scenarios ranging from households with income less than half of median income to all adults with estimates of their respective fiscal costs. We then employ an applied general equilibrium model to analyze the economy-wide effects and welfare implications for Turkey in the long run through 2030. We evaluate the macroeconomic and welfare effects of both a business-as-usual fiscal program and an alternative (green BI scenario) comprising of (i) carbon tax levied on the fossil fuel producing industry; (ii) corporate income taxation policy reform that aims at expanding the revenue base and consolidation of the fiscal space of the government; and (iii) restructuring of public consumption expenditures by introducing rationality and efficiency in the structure of fiscal expenditures. Our model solutions reveal that a green BI scenario not only achieves a higher GDP and welfare in the medium to long run but also helps Turkey to reduce its carbon emissions in line with the global policy challenges of a green recovery.