Hasan Tekgüç

Tekgüç, Hasan

Name Variants

H. Tekgüç
Tekgüç, H.
T.,Hasan
Tekguc, Hasan
Tekgüç, Hasan
Tekgüç, HASAN
Tekguc H.
HASAN TEKGÜÇ
Tekgüç,H.
T., Hasan
Hasan TEKGÜÇ
TEKGÜÇ, Hasan
Hasan Tekgüç
Tekguc,H.
TEKGÜÇ, HASAN
Hasan, Tekguc
Tekguc,Hasan
Tekgüç, Hasan

Job Title

Prof. Dr.

Email Address

hasan.tekguc@khas.edu.tr

ORCID ID

0000-0002-3902-4486

Scopus Author ID

39763212900

Full item page

Scholarly Output

20

Articles

15

Citation Count

63

Supervised Theses

4 Scholarly Output Search Results

Now showing 1 - 10 of 19

Citation Count: 1
Poverty and Income Distribution Incidence of the Covid-19 Outbreak: Investigating Socially Responsible Policy Alternatives for Turkey
(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2023) Tekguc, Hasan; Unsal, Ezgi B.; Yeldan, Erinc
To counterbalance the deep systemic global crisis triggered by the COVID-19, many countries introduced a vast arsenal of fiscal policy instruments coupled with monetary accommodation. Yet, Turkey's response had almost exclusively relied on credit expansion and loan guarantees while minimizing the role of fiscal policy. Within that context, this article has three interrelated objectives. Firstly, we evaluate the effects of the crisis and the implemented policies on poverty and income distribution. Second, we measure the macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19 on the Turkish economy through a general equilibrium model. We find that these policies had a limited impact on reducing crisis-induced poverty. Finally, we propose alternatives to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 crisis, which are compatible with fiscal constraints. Our results suggest that by pursuing a targeted fiscal income transfer programme covering wage earners and small-sized enterprises, Turkey could have achieved a more egalitarian and effective response to the Covid-19 crisis.
Citation Count: 2
Heterogeneous Effects of Minimum Wage on Labor Market Outcomes: a Case Study From Turkey
(Walter de Gruyter, 2020) Işık, Enes; Orhangazi, Özgür; Tekgüç, Hasan
We assess the effects of a sharp minimum wage increase on wages, informality, and employment in Turkey, a large developing economy with one of the highest minimum wage-to-average wage ratios among OECD countries and widespread discrepancies between labor market outcomes of women and of men. We look at the quasi-experimental 2016 minimum wage increase and pay attention to identifying information coming from demographic groups. We find that the increase in the minimum wage had an economically substantial and statistically significant positive impact on wages. Despite the positive wage effects of the increase, we find no negative employment effects. However, we show that the minimum wage increase may have caused an increase in the share of informal employment among workers with less than tertiary education, especially for such workers working for small firms
Citation Count: 0
Toward a Green Income Support Policy: Investigating Social and Fiscal Alternatives for Turkey
(Cambridge Univ Press, 2023) Dogan, Berna; Tekguc, Hasan; Yeldan, Alp Erinc
The limited success of employment-based social protection measures under the diverging patterns of post-COVID-19 recovery rekindled interest in a social policy framework known as the Basic Income (BI) support. We test the potential of the BI program using five alternative scenarios ranging from households with income less than half of median income to all adults with estimates of their respective fiscal costs. We then employ an applied general equilibrium model to analyze the economy-wide effects and welfare implications for Turkey in the long run through 2030. We evaluate the macroeconomic and welfare effects of both a business-as-usual fiscal program and an alternative (green BI scenario) comprising of (i) carbon tax levied on the fossil fuel producing industry; (ii) corporate income taxation policy reform that aims at expanding the revenue base and consolidation of the fiscal space of the government; and (iii) restructuring of public consumption expenditures by introducing rationality and efficiency in the structure of fiscal expenditures. Our model solutions reveal that a green BI scenario not only achieves a higher GDP and welfare in the medium to long run but also helps Turkey to reduce its carbon emissions in line with the global policy challenges of a green recovery.
Citation Count: 2
Ethnic Fractionalization Conflict and Educational Development in Turkey
(Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, 2019) Oyvat, Cem; Tekgüç, Hasan
We examine the impact of ethnic fractionalization and conflict on limiting the educational development in Southeastern Turkey. Our estimates show that although the armed conflict in the region did not directly hinder education investments it reduced school enrolment rates at middle and high school levels while increasing enrolment at the primary school level. Moreover we show that provinces with higher percentages of Kurdish population received less education investment. These results suggest that the neglect of Kurdish areas is an important factor behind Southeastern Turkey's educational underdevelopment while land inequality and the armed conflict had mixed effects on education in the region.
Citation Count: 17
Declining Poverty and Inequality in Turkey: the Effect of Social Assistance and Home Ownership
(Routledge Journals Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2018) Tekgüç, Hasan
Social assistance has become prominent in combating poverty in developing countries and has also contributed to the popularity and election success of governments implementing it. In this paper I employ household surveys and investigate the effect of social assistance on poverty and income inequality in Turkey. I also review the recent literature on poverty as well as different components of social protection spending: education health pensions and housing. In the empirical analysis I show that pensions still constitute the bulk of public transfers to households. Moreover home ownership ameliorates poverty and inequality for Turkey. Despite its modest amounts social assistance reduces poverty and its marginal effect on income inequality is larger than other income sources. These findings suggest that increases in social assistance budgets should accompany other policy measures in combating poverty and inequality.
Citation Count: 3
Does Migration Contribute To Women's Empowerment? Portrait of Urban Turkey and Istanbul
(Routledge Journals Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2019) Eryar, Değer; Tekgüç, Hasan; Toktaş, Şule
This article empirically investigates the impact of internal migration on women's empowerment in urban areas of Turkey. Based on data from a nationally representative household survey we find that migration exerts a positive impact in urban settings through improvements in educational attainment and labor market outcomes. Migration contributes to women's empowerment by raising their education levels and lowering the gap in schooling between men and women. Migration also allows migrants both men and women and particularly those with tertiary education to access jobs and occupations in high wage regions like Istanbul. However unlike in education a gender wage gap persists even after migration.
The Effect of Taxes and Transfers on Income Poverty in Turkey From 2003 To 2019
(Kadir Has Üniversitesi, 2021) Tüzün, Yasin; Tekgüç, Hasan
Unlike developed countries, indirect taxes are main tax revenue in developing countries. In Turkey, the majority of collected taxes are indirect taxes on consumption and the share of these taxes account for 60 percent of total tax revenue in Turkey. Indirect taxes disproportionally affect lower income groups which can impact poverty status. We estimate the fiscal incidence of social security contributions, income taxes, consumption taxes, and social assistance by using Household Budget Survey data. We estimate poverty rate and poverty gap for different income definitions, market, disposable, and consumable incomes. We also estimate poverty transition between high, middle, vulnerable, and poor income households. We find that marginal impact of indirect taxes is generally more than marginal impact of social assistance and minimum subsistence allowance. We find that poverty rate declined significantly over time, but poverty gap and squared poverty gap did not decline as much as poverty rate. Our empirical model indicates that there is opposite relationship between retirement income and poverty status. On the other hand, we find positive association between youth and poverty. If there is any youth in household, this household is more likely to be poor. Therefore, we simulate poverty effect of modest child support scheme due to this positive relationship. We assign 0.4 percent of total GDP as a child support to households which have any youth in their household, then we find approximately one percent decline in poverty rate for both disposable and consumable income.
Citation Count: 0
Counterfactual Reconciliation: Incorporating Aggregation Constraints for More Accurate Causal Effect Estimates
(Elsevier B.V., 2022) Cengiz, D.; Tekgüç, H.
We extend the scope of the forecast reconciliation literature and use its tools in the context of causal inference. Researchers are interested in both the average treatment effect on the treated and treatment effect heterogeneity. We show that ex post correction of the counterfactual estimates using the aggregation constraints that stem from the hierarchical or grouped structure of the data is likely to yield more accurate estimates. Building on the geometric interpretation of forecast reconciliation, we provide additional insights into the exact factors determining the size of the accuracy improvement due to the reconciliation. We experiment with U.S. GDP and employment data. We find that the reconciled treatment effect estimates tend to be closer to the truth than the original (base) counterfactual estimates even in cases where the aggregation constraints are non-linear. Consistent with our theoretical expectations, improvement is greater when machine learning methods are used. © 2022 International Institute of Forecasters
Citation Count: 0
Pious People, Patronage Jobs, and the Labor Market: Turkey Under Erdoğan's Akp
(Springer, 2024) Oyvat, Cem; Tekguc, Hasan; Yagci, Alper H.
In fragmented societies, electoral competition often entails using public office to advance group interests. Using individual-level polling data from 2012 to 2018, we analyze whether age cohorts entering the labor market before and after the religiously conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) assumed power in Turkey experienced different public employment outcomes based on their religion and religiosity. Our analysis reveals that under the AKP rule, pious Sunnis (who constitute a large part of the society) significantly increased their presence in public sector employment (notably among women) and in high-status private jobs (notably among men). Furthermore, the subset of highly religious Sunnis (only 9.3% of the population) improved their likelihood of being employed in the public sector compared to other pious Sunnis and everyone else. Our findings are likely to be driven by the lifting of the headscarf ban in public employment and AKP's strategic use of public employment and resources to reward like-minded groups in both the public and private spheres.
Citation Count: 1
Who Wants Left-Wing Policies? Economic Preferences and Political Cleavages in Turkey
(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2020) Yagcı, Alper H.; Harma, Mehmet; Tekgüç, Hasan
We administer a survey of economic policy preferences to a representative sample of the Turkish voting-age population. We show that policy preferences are distributed in non-linear ways that are at odds with what could be expected from a conventional left-right division. We find that while objective socioeconomic differences are bad at predicting economic policy preferences, the latter are distinctly associated with politically salient cleavages built on religiosity and ethnicity. We also examine how preferences of each party's voters compare with party programmes.