Future availability of natural gas: Can it support sustainable energy transition?

Abstract

Mitigating the adverse effects of global climate change and limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C requires a complete transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. Despite ongoing global efforts, particularly since the Paris Agreement in 2015, renewables are expected to not fully meet global energy demand by 2050. In this context, natural gas is expected to be a complementary fuel to support renewables throughout the transition. This paper assesses whether the future availability of global resources would enable natural gas to support sustainable energy transition. To this end, we first employ R/P ratio and Hubbert curve analyses and then compare our results with the recent natural gas supply/demand forecasts in the literature. Our findings suggest that global natural gas resources, both conventional and unconventional, are enough to meet forecasted global natural gas demand. This requires substantial investment in the natural gas industry, which would further increase green-house gas emissions. Therefore, natural gas resource-rich countries and the natural gas industry must adapt their operations to the new global paradigm framed by Paris Agreement and United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.