1980 sonrası gelişmekte olan ülkelerde yaşanan finansal krizler, finansal kriz modelleri ve çözüm önerileri
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Date
2007
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Kadir Has Üniversitesi
Abstract
İkinci Dünya Savaşı sonrasındaki soğuk savaş süreci, küçük ölçekli ülkelerin güvenlik kaygılarının arttığı ve ekonomik kalkınmayı işbirliklerinde aradıkları dönem olmuştur. Bu süreci teknoloji ile iletişim bilimlerinin gelişmesiyle finansal serbestleşme ve entegrasyon hareketleri izlemiştir. Bu sürecin son halkası olan küreselleşme olgusu ile tüm dünya ülkeleri birbirine bağımlı hale gelmiştir. Küreselleşmenin ülkeler açısından önemli kazanımlar sağladığı kadar değişik kayıplara da neden olduğu görülmüştür. Küreselleşme, özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde yaşanan finansal krizlerin temel sebeplerinden birisidir. Kriz yaşayan ülkelerin küreselleşmeyi doğru algılayamamaları, makroekonomik boyuttaki sorunlarını çözmek yerine, küreselleşmenin sağladığı imkân ve kolaylıklar ile sorunları ötelemeye çalışmaları, bu ülkelerin ilerleyen zamanda finansal kriz yaşamasına zemin hazırlamıştır. 1980'li yıllardan itibaren sıkça finansal kriz yaşanması, araştırmacıları krizlerin nedenleri ve erken uyarı sistemleriyle krizlerin önlenmesi konularında yoğunlaşmalarına yol açmıştır. Bu süreçte yaşanan 1982 Latin Amerika, 1994 Meksika, 1995 Arjantin, 1997 Asya-5 ülkeleri, 1998 Rusya, 1999 Brezilya finansal krizleri tezimizde incelenmiştir. Krizlerin temelinde aşırı borç birikimi, kronik bütçe açığı, cari işlemler açığı, kur rejimi, ekonomik belirsizlik, banka bilançolarındaki bozulma, mevduat sigortası, faiz oranlarındaki artış, yüksek enflasyon ve denetlemede yaşanan sorunlar olduğu anlaşılmıştır. 24 Ocak 1980 kararlarıyla dışa açık ekonomi modeli benimseyen Türkiye'de anılan sorunları yaşamış ve "krizler ülkesi" tanımlamasına maruz kalmıştır. Tezimizde Türkiye'de yaşanan finansal krizler illiyet bağı perspektifinde incelenerek analizi yapılmaya çalışılmıştır. Son bölümde ise finansal krizlerin insanların hayatını nasıl etkilediği üzerinde durulmuştur. Ülkelerin finansal kriz yaşamaması ve güçlü bir ekonomiye sahip olması için neler yapması gerektiği açıklanmaya çalışılmıştır.
The process of cold war after the Second World War has been the period that the small-scaled countries' security anxiety went up and looked for the economic improvement in their collaboration. Financial liberation and integration movements,by the help of the developed technology and communication sciences,followed this process.Because of the globalisation fact,the last ring of this process,all the countries of the world became dependent upon each other. It was seen that globalisation caused different loses as much as the important acquirements it provided for the countries.Globalisation is one of the main reasons of the financial crises occuring especially in the developing countries.The wrong perceivment of globalisation of the crises living countries,instead of solving their problems in macro economic dimensions, their efforts to delay the problems by means of the opportunities and facilities provided by the globalisation, made up a basement for these countries to live a financial crises in the progressive period.The frequent occurance of the financial crises until 1980s gave way to researchers to condense on the subjects about the reasons of the crises and the prevention of the crises by the early warning systems.The financial crises occured in this process, 1982 Latin America,1994 Mexico, 1995 Argentina,1997 Asia-5 countries,1998 Russia,1999 Brasil were examined in our thesis. It was understood that excessive dept accumulation,chronic budget deficit, current transaction deficit,exchange regime,economic uncertainty,dissolution in the bank balance,deposit assurance,the increase in the interest rates,high infilation and the problems occured in the inspection, lie beneath the crises. Turkey ,by adopting an extrovert economy model because of the decisions of the 24th of January,1980, lived the same problems mentioned above and exposed to the description of "crises country". In our thesis, it was tried to make an analysis of the financial crises occured in Turkey by examining them in the perspective of causality relation. In the last section,however,it was focused on how the financial crises affect people's lives .It was tried to explain what the countries should do in order not to live a financial crises and to have a strong economy.
The process of cold war after the Second World War has been the period that the small-scaled countries' security anxiety went up and looked for the economic improvement in their collaboration. Financial liberation and integration movements,by the help of the developed technology and communication sciences,followed this process.Because of the globalisation fact,the last ring of this process,all the countries of the world became dependent upon each other. It was seen that globalisation caused different loses as much as the important acquirements it provided for the countries.Globalisation is one of the main reasons of the financial crises occuring especially in the developing countries.The wrong perceivment of globalisation of the crises living countries,instead of solving their problems in macro economic dimensions, their efforts to delay the problems by means of the opportunities and facilities provided by the globalisation, made up a basement for these countries to live a financial crises in the progressive period.The frequent occurance of the financial crises until 1980s gave way to researchers to condense on the subjects about the reasons of the crises and the prevention of the crises by the early warning systems.The financial crises occured in this process, 1982 Latin America,1994 Mexico, 1995 Argentina,1997 Asia-5 countries,1998 Russia,1999 Brasil were examined in our thesis. It was understood that excessive dept accumulation,chronic budget deficit, current transaction deficit,exchange regime,economic uncertainty,dissolution in the bank balance,deposit assurance,the increase in the interest rates,high infilation and the problems occured in the inspection, lie beneath the crises. Turkey ,by adopting an extrovert economy model because of the decisions of the 24th of January,1980, lived the same problems mentioned above and exposed to the description of "crises country". In our thesis, it was tried to make an analysis of the financial crises occured in Turkey by examining them in the perspective of causality relation. In the last section,however,it was focused on how the financial crises affect people's lives .It was tried to explain what the countries should do in order not to live a financial crises and to have a strong economy.
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Keywords
Finansal Kriz, Küreselleşme, Erken Uyarı Sistemi, Türkiye’deki Finansal Krizler, Finansal Sistem, Kriz Teorisi, Kur Rejimi, Kriz Çeşitleri, Financial Crises, Globalisation, Early Warning System, Financial Crises in Turkey, Financial System, Crisis Theory, Exchange Regime, Crises Kinds