Uluslararası İlişkiler Bölümü Koleksiyonu
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Browsing Uluslararası İlişkiler Bölümü Koleksiyonu by Author "Bilgin, Mehmet Hüseyin"
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Article Citation Count: 9Determinants of Currency Crises in Turkey Some Empirical Evidence(M.E Sharpe Inc., 2010) Karabulut, Gökhan; Bilgin, Mehmet Hüseyin; Danisoglu, Ayse CelikelCurrency crises have become a serious threat for developing countries especially since the financial deregulation process and the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. In the past two decades Turkey has experienced two major currency crises. This study aims to predict the determinants of currency crises in Turkey by using an ordered probit model. According to the results short-term debt/GDP real exchange rate deposit interest rates foreign exchange reserves/imports and credit/deposit variables are all significant in explaining currency crises in Turkey.Article Citation Count: 4Do structural breaks in exchange rate volatility matter? Evidence from Asia-Pacific currencies(Bilgesel Yayincilik San & Tic Ltd, 2011) Su, Yongyang; Lau, Chi Keung Marco; Bilgin, Mehmet HüseyinUsing the U.S. dollar exchange rate return series of three major Asia-Pacific currencies this paper investigates the empirical relevance of structural breaks in exchange rate volatilities. We find significant evidence of structural breaks in the unconditional variances of all three exchange rate returns implying unstable GARCH processes for these exchange rates. Various methods of accommodating structural breaks were considered when forecasting daily exchange rate volatility using GARCH models. In sharp contrast to previous evidence from currencies of developed countries accommodating structural breaks however did not improve out-of-sample forecasts of exchange rate volatility i.e. a simple GARCH(11) with expanding window model performed best in forecasting exchange rate volatilities in these emerging markets.Editorial Citation Count: 0Economic Financial and Policy Challenges in Emerging Economies Papers from the First Eurasia Business and Economics Society Conference Introduction(M.E Sharpe Inc., 2010) Bilgin, Mehmet Hüseyin; Danis, Hakan[Abstract Not Available]Editorial Citation Count: 0Emerging Markets: Institutional Reforms FDI Capital Mobility and Abnormal Returns Introduction(M.E Sharpe Inc., 2011) Danis, Hakan; Bilgin, Mehmet Hüseyin[Abstract Not Available]Article Citation Count: 4Export Conditions of the Chinese Textile Industry: An Analysis in Comparison with Selected ASEAN Countries(Sage Publications Ltd, 2010) Lau, Chi Keung Marco; Bilgin, Mehmet HüseyinThis paper provides a comprehensive and disaggregated set of elasticity estimates to date in the face of MFA abolishment. The estimates made here are at a detailed level of disaggregation and should provide researchers with opportunities for future analysis. We used the gravity model to estimate the trade elasticity of China's apparel cottons in the US market for the period between 1989 and 2009. From the gravity model two phenomena are observed. First there exists a unique long-run equilibrium relationship among the import quantity demand the import price and the US GDP per capita. Second import price and income elasticity are significant with the expected signs conditions of which are significant for performing trade-policy analyses.Article Citation Count: 28Income Inequality and FDI: Evidence with Turkish Data(Routledge Journals Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2016) Ucal, Meltem Şengün; Haug, Alfred Albert; Bilgin, Mehmet HüseyinThis article explores how foreign direct investment (FDI) and other determinants impact income inequality in Turkey in the short- and long-run. We apply the nonlinear auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) modelling approach which is suitable for small samples. The data for the study cover the years from 1970 to 2008. The empirical results indicate the existence of a co-integration relationship among the variables with asymmetric adjustment of the income distribution in the short- and long-run. The negative impact of FDI on the Gini coefficient decreasing income inequality is statistically significant in the short- and long-run though with a quantitatively small impact in both cases. In the short run GDP growth increases inequality initially an effect that is reversed in the next period increases in domestic gross capital formation decreases inequality and increases in the literacy rate have very minor adverse effects on income equality. However in the long run these variables have no statistically significant effects on the Gini coefficient. A reduction in the population growth rate reduces inequality in the short run but has no effect in the long run whereas an increase in the rate reduces inequality in the long run but has no effect in the short run.Article Citation Count: 8Is China Integrated With Her Major Trading Partners: Evidence On Financial And Real Integration(Vilnius Gediminas Tech Univ, 2010) Bilgin, Mehmet Hüseyin; Lau, Chi Keung Marco; Tvaronaviciene, ManuelaApplying the new panel unit root test developed in this paper we can overcome the pitfalls of old-fashioned panel unit root tests making it possible for researchers testing individual series for a unit root while taking contemporaneous cross-sectional dependence and structural break into account. The proposed test was used to investigate the status of financial and real integration of China Japan UK the European Union and the United States based on the empirical validity of real interest parity uncovered interest parity and relative purchasing power parity. We found strong evidence in favor of those parity conditions and hence concluded that financial and real integration between China and the other four countries was well established using the new developed panel unit root test while the traditional tests (either univariate or panel) fail to do so.Article Citation Count: 40Relationship Between Financial Crisis And Foreign Direct Investment In Developing Countries Using Semiparametric Regression Approach(Vilnius Gediminas Tech Univ, 2010) Ucal, Meltem Şengün; Ozcan, Kivilcim Metin; Bilgin, Mehmet Hüseyin; Mungo, JuliusThis paper analyzes whether and to what extent the inflow of FDI is affected before and after the occurence of a financial crisis in developing countries. The paper uses a semiparametric Generalized Partial Linear Models (GPLM) regression approach to check the appropriateness and effectiveness of financial crisis in the FDI regression model. The results indicate that FDI inflows decrease in the years after a financial crisis and an upturn in FDI inflows the year before a financial crisis hit the country.Article Citation Count: 8Rental Price Convergence In A Developing Economy: New Evidence From Nonlinear Panel Unit Root Test(Vilnius Gediminas Tech Univ, 2010) Bilgin, Mehmet Hüseyin; Lau, Chi Keung Marco; Demir, Ender; Astrauskiene, NijoleWe examine the hypothesis of nonlinear rental price convergence using relative rental price index of three major cities of Turkey namely Istanbul Izmir and Ankara span from the period from January 1994 to February 2010. Our results indicate that all cities exhibit rental price convergence towards its national mean level for the period of January 1994 to December 2004. In contrast none of the cities show evidence of convergence from January 2005 to February 2010. The evidence clearly shows rental price divergence in Turkish property market.Article Citation Count: 8The Turkish handmade carpet industry: an analysis in comparison with select Asian countries(Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2011) Bilgin, Mehmet Hüseyin; Demir, Ender; Lau, Marco Chi Keung; To, Chester Kin-Man; Zhang, Zhi-MingThe main purpose of this paper is to analyze the Turkish handmade carpet industry and to compare it with select Far East countries. In particular the Turkish handmade carpet industry is compared with the handmade carpet industries of Iran India China Afghanistan Pakistan and Nepal. In this context the determinants of handmade carpets in the US market are analyzed empirically. Our results show that the Turkish handmade carpet industry has been experiencing a period of recession in the past decade. Through the relative comparative advantage (RCA) index and the Kreinin-Finger similarity (KFS) index we observed that the RCA index for Turkey indicates that Turkey's RCA has been declining since 1992. However despite this decline the RCA of Turkey was above that of other countries until 1997. But after this the advantage disappeared eventually and was gained by Iran. During this period the other competitors of Turkey showed small increases. Furthermore the empirical results from the gravity model suggests that a 10% real depreciation/appreciation of the US dollar against foreign currency leads to a 0.2% decrease/increase in imports. This finding suggests relatively low exchange rate import pass-through in carpet commodity. The results also support the Linder hypothesis that countries with similar preferences and demand structures will tend to trade more.Article Citation Count: 0Türkiye'ye Yönelik Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımcılarının İstihdama Etkisi(Marmara Üniversitesi, Sos. Bil. Enst., 2004) Bilgin, Mehmet HüseyinDoğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları, kalkınmaya olan katkısının anlaşılmasıyla, gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan birçok ülkenin ilgi odağı haline gelmiştir. Günümüzde, yabancı sermayenin beraberinde getirdiği teknolojik gelişme ve istihdam artışının, yabancı yatırımları çeken ülkelerin ekonomilerine büyüme ve refah artışı olarak yansıdığı görüşü hakimdir. Öte yandan, gittikleri ülkelerde yeni iş olanakları yaratan doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarının, ülkelerin işsizlik sorununun çözümüne de katkıda bulundukları, literatürde geniş bir kabul görmektedir. Bu bağlamda, çalışmanın temel amacı, Türkiye'ye yönelik doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarının istihdam düzeyi üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmektir. Bu nedenle çalışmada, Türkiye'ye yönelik doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarının, istihdam düzeyi üzerindeki etkisi ampirik olarak test edilmektedir. Bu amaçla kurulan ekonometrik modellerin sonuçlarına göre, Türkiye'ye yönelik doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarının, istihdam düzeyi üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi yoktur.
