Browsing by Author "Tekgüç, Hasan"

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Citation - Scopus: 0
Counterfactual Reconciliation: Incorporating Aggregation Constraints for More Accurate Causal Effect Estimates
(Elsevier B.V., 2022) Cengiz, D.; Tekgüç, Hasan; Tekgüç, H.
We extend the scope of the forecast reconciliation literature and use its tools in the context of causal inference. Researchers are interested in both the average treatment effect on the treated and treatment effect heterogeneity. We show that ex post correction of the counterfactual estimates using the aggregation constraints that stem from the hierarchical or grouped structure of the data is likely to yield more accurate estimates. Building on the geometric interpretation of forecast reconciliation, we provide additional insights into the exact factors determining the size of the accuracy improvement due to the reconciliation. We experiment with U.S. GDP and employment data. We find that the reconciled treatment effect estimates tend to be closer to the truth than the original (base) counterfactual estimates even in cases where the aggregation constraints are non-linear. Consistent with our theoretical expectations, improvement is greater when machine learning methods are used. © 2022 International Institute of Forecasters
Citation - WoS: 0
Counterfactual Reconciliation: Incorporating Aggregation Constraints for More Accurate Causal Effect Estimates
(Elsevier, 2024) Cengiz, Doruk; Tekgüç, Hasan; Tekguc, Hasan
We extend the scope of the forecast reconciliation literature and use its tools in the context of causal inference. Researchers are interested in both the average treatment effect on the treated and treatment effect heterogeneity. We show that ex post correction of the counterfactual estimates using the aggregation constraints that stem from the hierarchical or grouped structure of the data is likely to yield more accurate estimates. Building on the geometric interpretation of forecast reconciliation, we provide additional insights into the exact factors determining the size of the accuracy improvement due to the reconciliation. We experiment with U.S. GDP and employment data. We find that the reconciled treatment effect estimates tend to be closer to the truth than the original (base) counterfactual estimates even in cases where the aggregation constraints are non-linear. Consistent with our theoretical expectations, improvement is greater when machine learning methods are used. (c) 2022 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
COVID-19 Salgının Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Etkileri ve Politika Alternatiflerinin Makroekonomik Genel Denge Analizi
(2020) Tekgüç, Hasan; Yeldan, Alp Erinç; Ünsal, Ezgi Berfin
Covid-19 krizi arz, talep ve finans soklarının es anlı tezahürüne dayalı, çok boyutlu sistemik bir kriz olarak yasanmaktadır. Söz konusu soklar ise gelir dagılımında hem fonksiyonel, hem bölgesel, hem de cinsiyet bazında derin esitsizliklerin var oldugu; kamusal hizmetlere erisimin ticarilestirildigi; ve dolayısıyla, gelir esitsizligine baglı olarak yoksullugun sosyal dıslanma ile birlikte yasanmakta oldugu bir ortamda gerçeklesmektedir Covid-19 krizi Türkiye ekonomisini, 2018 finansal krizinin etkilerinin tamamıyla çözümlenmedigi ve ulusal ekonominin akım dengelerinin yeniden saglanmasının henüz tamamlanmamıs oldugu bir konjonktürde etkilemektedir. Bu durum, Türkiye?nin krize karsı uygulayabilecegi politika önlemlerinin etkinligini de kısıtlamaktadır. Bu tespitler altında, bu çalısmanın ana amacı, Covid-19 salgını krizinin ekonomik etkilerini öngörmek ve krizin olumsuz etkilerini en aza indirgeyecek gerçekçi gelir ve maliye politikalarını tasarlayarak Türkiye politik ekonomi yazınına ve ilgili tüm sosyal paydasların gündemine sunmaktır. Bu amaçla bir makroekonomik genel denge model kurgulanarak öncelikle COVID19 salgının yol açtıgı kriz konjonktürünün sektörel üretim, istihdam, ücret ve sermaye gelirleri, milli gelir büyüklükleri ve dıs ticaret dengeleri üzerine yaratmakta oldugu etkiler irdelenmekte; daha sonra krize karsı gelistirebilecek savunma politikalarının analizi gerçeklestirilmektedir. Bu gözlemlerden hareketle, makroekonomik genel denge modeli bir sosyal laboratuvar gibi kullanılarak alternatif bir politika paketi tasarlanmıstır. Bu paketin önceligi hanehalkları emek gelirlerinin desteklenmesi amacına yöneltilmis ve kamu kesiminden dogrudan gelir destegi biçiminde uygulanması öngörülmüstür. Söz konusu Emek Gelir Destegi paketinin teknik unsurları (i) ücretlilerin formel kesim ortalama ücretinin %50?sine tekabül edecek sürekli bir gelir transferi ile desteklenmesi; (ii) küçük ve orta boy sirketlerin ve kendi hesabına çalısan kesimin desteklenmesi; ve (iii) kamunun tüketim harcamalarının %20 düzeyinde arttırılması ile uygulanmıstır. Model sonuçları Emek Gelir Destegi paketinin mali yükünün 2019 sabit fiyatlarıyla 123.5 milyar TL düzeyinde olacagını ve 2019 milli gelirinin %2.9?una ulasacagını göstermektedir. Böylesi bir paketin uygulanması neticesinde hanehalkları kullanılabilir ücret geliri kayıplarının yüzde 85?i telafi edilmekte ve yurtiçi gayrı safi hasıla Covid-19 salgınının yaratması muhtemel düzeye görece %60?lık bir kazanım saglamaktadır. EGD programı kamunun bütçe dengelerinde de görece olumlu sonuçlar yaratmakta ve olası Covid-19 altındaki bütçe açıgını yarı yarıya azaltmaktadır. Model sonuçları EGD programının özellikle ara ve yatırım malları üreten sektörlerde canlanma yaratacagını göstermektedir. Çalısmamızın pandeminin Hanehalkları düzeyinde, özellikle gelir ve yasam kosulları özelindeki bulguları ise söyle özetlenebilir; ? Tarım sektöründe ücretsiz aile isçisi olarak çalısan kadınlar arasında beklenmedik istihdam kayıpları gözlemlenmistir. Aynı sayıda olmasa da, erkek nüfusunun tarımda kayıtlı istihdamı artmıstır. Erkek nüfusu için tarım istihdamı bir nebze de olsa B planı islevi görmüs gibidir. ? 2018-2019 arasında hanelerin aylık ücret ve mütesebbis gelirleri ayda ortalama 2.9 milyar TL azalmıstır. Azalmanın hemen hemen hepsi erkek çalısanlardan kaynaklanmıstır. ? 6.2 milyon haneye verilen 1000 TL?lik nakdi yardım sayesinde medyan gelirin yarısından daha az kazanan yoksulların oranı %13.5?ten %19.9?a çıkacagına %17.8 seviyesinde kalmıstır. Sonuç olarak, bu Rapor çalısması kapsamında vurgulamamız gereken, Türkiye?de ve bir çok gelismekte olan piyasa ekonomisinde su ana degin uygulanmakta oldugu destekleme politikaları ile karsılastırıldıgında, net olarak odaklanmıs ve sınırları seffaf olarak çizilmis böylesi bir canlandırma ve gelirler programının daha etkili olabilecegidir.
Citation - WoS: 20
Citation - Scopus: 21
Declining Poverty and Inequality in Turkey: the Effect of Social Assistance and Home Ownership
(Routledge Journals Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2018) Tekgüç, Hasan; Tekgüç, Hasan
Social assistance has become prominent in combating poverty in developing countries and has also contributed to the popularity and election success of governments implementing it. In this paper I employ household surveys and investigate the effect of social assistance on poverty and income inequality in Turkey. I also review the recent literature on poverty as well as different components of social protection spending: education health pensions and housing. In the empirical analysis I show that pensions still constitute the bulk of public transfers to households. Moreover home ownership ameliorates poverty and inequality for Turkey. Despite its modest amounts social assistance reduces poverty and its marginal effect on income inequality is larger than other income sources. These findings suggest that increases in social assistance budgets should accompany other policy measures in combating poverty and inequality.
Citation - WoS: 5
Citation - Scopus: 6
Does Migration Contribute To Women's Empowerment? Portrait of Urban Turkey and Istanbul
(Routledge Journals Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2019) Eryar, Değer; Tekgüç, Hasan; Tekgüç, Hasan; Toktaş, Şule
This article empirically investigates the impact of internal migration on women's empowerment in urban areas of Turkey. Based on data from a nationally representative household survey we find that migration exerts a positive impact in urban settings through improvements in educational attainment and labor market outcomes. Migration contributes to women's empowerment by raising their education levels and lowering the gap in schooling between men and women. Migration also allows migrants both men and women and particularly those with tertiary education to access jobs and occupations in high wage regions like Istanbul. However unlike in education a gender wage gap persists even after migration.
The Effect of Taxes and Transfers on Income Poverty in Turkey From 2003 To 2019
(Kadir Has Üniversitesi, 2021) Tüzün, Yasin; Tekgüç, Hasan; Tekgüç, Hasan
Unlike developed countries, indirect taxes are main tax revenue in developing countries. In Turkey, the majority of collected taxes are indirect taxes on consumption and the share of these taxes account for 60 percent of total tax revenue in Turkey. Indirect taxes disproportionally affect lower income groups which can impact poverty status. We estimate the fiscal incidence of social security contributions, income taxes, consumption taxes, and social assistance by using Household Budget Survey data. We estimate poverty rate and poverty gap for different income definitions, market, disposable, and consumable incomes. We also estimate poverty transition between high, middle, vulnerable, and poor income households. We find that marginal impact of indirect taxes is generally more than marginal impact of social assistance and minimum subsistence allowance. We find that poverty rate declined significantly over time, but poverty gap and squared poverty gap did not decline as much as poverty rate. Our empirical model indicates that there is opposite relationship between retirement income and poverty status. On the other hand, we find positive association between youth and poverty. If there is any youth in household, this household is more likely to be poor. Therefore, we simulate poverty effect of modest child support scheme due to this positive relationship. We assign 0.4 percent of total GDP as a child support to households which have any youth in their household, then we find approximately one percent decline in poverty rate for both disposable and consumable income.
Citation - WoS: 4
Citation - Scopus: 5
Ethnic Fractionalization Conflict and Educational Development in Turkey
(Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, 2019) Oyvat, Cem; Tekgüç, Hasan; Tekgüç, Hasan
We examine the impact of ethnic fractionalization and conflict on limiting the educational development in Southeastern Turkey. Our estimates show that although the armed conflict in the region did not directly hinder education investments it reduced school enrolment rates at middle and high school levels while increasing enrolment at the primary school level. Moreover we show that provinces with higher percentages of Kurdish population received less education investment. These results suggest that the neglect of Kurdish areas is an important factor behind Southeastern Turkey's educational underdevelopment while land inequality and the armed conflict had mixed effects on education in the region.
Citation - WoS: 5
Citation - Scopus: 7
The evolution of unprocessed food inflation in Turkey: an exploratory study on select products
(Cambridge Univ Press, 2022) Tekgüç, Hasan; Demirkılıç, Serkan; Tekguc, Hasan
Food price increases stem from economic, agricultural, and political factors. Understanding the dynamics behind the food price formation process and assessing how potential factors contribute to food price changes will significantly affect policies formulated to manage food price increases. High food inflation rates have been a chronic problem in Turkey over the last decade, with unprocessed food prices rising faster than general price levels. In this article, we use exploratory analyses based on economic principles rather than econometric analyses. First, our results indicate that exchange rates are strongly associated with domestic food prices due to dependence on imported inputs. Second, deep-dive analyses on select products show that global price movements and pass-through prices from producer to consumer are not solely responsible for price increases.
Citation - WoS: 3
Citation - Scopus: 3
Heterogeneous Effects of Minimum Wage on Labor Market Outcomes: a Case Study From Turkey
(Walter de Gruyter, 2020) Işık, Enes; Orhangazi, Özgür; Orhangazi, Özgür; Tekgüç, Hasan; Tekgüç, Hasan
We assess the effects of a sharp minimum wage increase on wages, informality, and employment in Turkey, a large developing economy with one of the highest minimum wage-to-average wage ratios among OECD countries and widespread discrepancies between labor market outcomes of women and of men. We look at the quasi-experimental 2016 minimum wage increase and pay attention to identifying information coming from demographic groups. We find that the increase in the minimum wage had an economically substantial and statistically significant positive impact on wages. Despite the positive wage effects of the increase, we find no negative employment effects. However, we show that the minimum wage increase may have caused an increase in the share of informal employment among workers with less than tertiary education, especially for such workers working for small firms
Impact Assesment of Turkey 2023 Tourism Action Plan
(Kadir Has Üniversitesi, 2019) Ertekin, Çiğdem; Tekgüç, Hasan; Tekgüç, Hasan
Tourism Strategy of Turkey – 2023 and the Action Plan for 2013 [Tourism Strategy 2023] have the target of making Turkey a top brand in the world with superior income and visitor figures by 2023. One of the major aims of this new strategy is to increase revenue per tourist and it emphasizes the role of cultural tourism in reaching this goal. In this thesis, I investigate the impact of this strategy. I use both instrumental variable and panel data methods and find an impact of $103-$192 per tourist depending on the empirical method for the 2011-2018 period compared to the preceding period of 2006-2010. These results are statistically and economically significant and robust to alternative assumptions
Intergenerational Transmission and the Impact of Mothers-in Law in the Turkish Labor Market: The Case of Izmir
(2020) Tekgüç, Hasan; Eryar, Değer
This paper examines the presence of intergenerational transmission in the Turkish labor market with respect to the association between labor market activity of women and work experience of their mothers-in-law. By utilizing a representative unique household labor force survey from İzmir, this study provides statistically significant results for the association above even after taking into account manysocioeconomic factors such as parental education and the household characteristics. Our major findings show that the presence of a working mother-in-law increases the probability of women’s labor force participation rate by 11 percentage points. Our results are robust when we use different dependent variables such as employment rate and being a regular employee in non-agricultural sector. The labor market experience of women’s own mothers turns out to affect rather indirectly through human capital investment for their daughters. The impact of working mothers-in-law on women’s labor market activity is not homogeneous across all educational categories. This association is particularly significant among women with lower educational attainment (at most 8 years of schooling).
Citation - WoS: 15
Citation - Scopus: 14
Is It Merely a Labor Supply Shock? Impacts of Syrian Migrants on Local Economies in Turkey
(Sage Publications, 2021) Tekgüç, Hasan; Tekgüç, Hasan
The authors use the occurrence of a large and geographically varying inflow of more than 2.5 million Syrian migrants to Turkey between 2012 and 2015 to study the effect of migration on local economies. They do not find adverse employment or wage effects for native-born Turkish workers overall or for those without a high school degree. These results are robust to a range of strategies to construct reliable control groups. To explain the findings, the authors document the importance of three migration-induced demand channels: the complementarity between native and migrant labor, housing demand, and increased entrepreneurial activities.
Citation - WoS: 7
Citation - Scopus: 8
A Multidimensional Approach To the Gender Gap in Poverty: an Application for Turkey
(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2022) Tekguc, Hasan; Tekgüç, Hasan; Akbulut, Bengi
Conventional poverty measures have long been criticized as a poor gauge of quality of life. Household-level income or expenditure data used in these measures are silent on intrahousehold inequalities and capture means to an end rather than outcomes and opportunities individuals face. This article constructs a multidimensional poverty index (MPI) to address these problems. It calculates multidimensional poverty for Turkey in four equally weighted dimensions: education, health, employment, and household living conditions. The study introduces employment as a distinct dimension of well-being, which is especially pertinent for the gender gap in poverty in the Turkish context. It finds a significant (30-34 percent) gender poverty gap, which is gradually narrowing over time. However, there is very little convergence between regions. Finally, results show households with multidimensionally poor women and non-poor men as the most common sub-group and an increase in the share of households with no poor members.
Path Dependence of Public Investment and Regional Development Agency Supports in Turkey
(Kadir Has Üniversitesi, 2017) Altunbaş, Ziya; Tekgüç, Hasan; Tekgüç, Hasan
[Abstract Not Available]
Citation - WoS: 0
Citation - Scopus: 0
Pious People, Patronage Jobs, and the Labor Market: Turkey Under Erdoğan's Akp
(Springer, 2024) Tekgüç, Hasan; Tekguc, Hasan; Yagci, Alper H.
In fragmented societies, electoral competition often entails using public office to advance group interests. Using individual-level polling data from 2012 to 2018, we analyze whether age cohorts entering the labor market before and after the religiously conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) assumed power in Turkey experienced different public employment outcomes based on their religion and religiosity. Our analysis reveals that under the AKP rule, pious Sunnis (who constitute a large part of the society) significantly increased their presence in public sector employment (notably among women) and in high-status private jobs (notably among men). Furthermore, the subset of highly religious Sunnis (only 9.3% of the population) improved their likelihood of being employed in the public sector compared to other pious Sunnis and everyone else. Our findings are likely to be driven by the lifting of the headscarf ban in public employment and AKP's strategic use of public employment and resources to reward like-minded groups in both the public and private spheres.
Citation - WoS: 1
Citation - Scopus: 1
Poverty and Income Distribution Incidence of the Covid-19 Outbreak: Investigating Socially Responsible Policy Alternatives for Turkey
(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2023) Tekguc, Hasan; Tekgüç, Hasan; Unsal, Ezgi B.; Yeldan, Erinc
To counterbalance the deep systemic global crisis triggered by the COVID-19, many countries introduced a vast arsenal of fiscal policy instruments coupled with monetary accommodation. Yet, Turkey's response had almost exclusively relied on credit expansion and loan guarantees while minimizing the role of fiscal policy. Within that context, this article has three interrelated objectives. Firstly, we evaluate the effects of the crisis and the implemented policies on poverty and income distribution. Second, we measure the macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19 on the Turkish economy through a general equilibrium model. We find that these policies had a limited impact on reducing crisis-induced poverty. Finally, we propose alternatives to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 crisis, which are compatible with fiscal constraints. Our results suggest that by pursuing a targeted fiscal income transfer programme covering wage earners and small-sized enterprises, Turkey could have achieved a more egalitarian and effective response to the Covid-19 crisis.
Citation - WoS: 0
Citation - Scopus: 0
Toward a Green Income Support Policy: Investigating Social and Fiscal Alternatives for Turkey
(Cambridge Univ Press, 2023) Dogan, Berna; Tekgüç, Hasan; Tekguc, Hasan; Yeldan, Alp Erinç; Yeldan, Alp Erinc
The limited success of employment-based social protection measures under the diverging patterns of post-COVID-19 recovery rekindled interest in a social policy framework known as the Basic Income (BI) support. We test the potential of the BI program using five alternative scenarios ranging from households with income less than half of median income to all adults with estimates of their respective fiscal costs. We then employ an applied general equilibrium model to analyze the economy-wide effects and welfare implications for Turkey in the long run through 2030. We evaluate the macroeconomic and welfare effects of both a business-as-usual fiscal program and an alternative (green BI scenario) comprising of (i) carbon tax levied on the fossil fuel producing industry; (ii) corporate income taxation policy reform that aims at expanding the revenue base and consolidation of the fiscal space of the government; and (iii) restructuring of public consumption expenditures by introducing rationality and efficiency in the structure of fiscal expenditures. Our model solutions reveal that a green BI scenario not only achieves a higher GDP and welfare in the medium to long run but also helps Turkey to reduce its carbon emissions in line with the global policy challenges of a green recovery.
Türkı̇ye İçı̇n Eşı̇tsı̇zlı̇k Tahmı̇nlerı̇ndekı̇ Aşağı Yönlü Yanlılığın Konut Fı̇yatları Verı̇lerı̇yle Düzeltı̇lmesı̇
(2024) Karabulut, Fırat Çağlar; Tekgüç, Hasan; Tekgüç, Hasan
Hanehalkı anketleri genellikle en çok kazananların gelirlerini yakalamakta başarısız olmaktadır. En çok kazananların anketlere yanıt verme olasılığı daha düşüktür ve müteşebbis gelirine ilişkin soruları yanıtlamama olasılıkları daha yüksektir, yani 'kayıp zengin' sorunu. Bu sorunları çözmek için literatürdeki en yaygın yöntem, gelir vergisi kayıtlarından elde edilen verilerin kullanılmasıdır. Gelişmekte olan ülkeler için vergi kayıtlarının kullanılması iki açıdan sorunludur: (i) bu ülkelerin çoğunda vergi kayıtlarının özet ölçümleri bile kamuya açık değildir ve (ii) vergi kaçakçılığı yaygındır ve resmi vergi kayıtları mevcut olsa bile muhtemelen güvenilir değildir. Bu nedenle, bu çalışmada 'kayıp zengin' sorunu, üst gelirleri tahmin etmek için www.sahibinden.com adresinden elde edilen konut fiyatı verileri kullanılarak düzeltilmiştir. Hanehalkı gelirlerini konut fiyatlarını kullanarak tahmin ediyoruz ve bu tahminleri anket verilerinin sağ kuyruğuna ekliyoruz. Hanehalkı Bütçe Anketi'nin 2019 yılında toplam hanelerin yaklaşık yüzde 5'ini eksik saydığını tahmin ediyoruz. Kayıp zengin haneler dahil edildiğinde, en üst %5'lik (%10) gelir payları %17'den (%27) %28'e (%40) yükselmektedir. Sonuç olarak, Türkiye'de hanehalkı gelirinin Gini endeksi 35,3'ten 50'ye yükselmiştir. Anahtar Sözcükler: eşitsizlik, Türkiye, konut fiyatları, en yüksek gelirler, gelir eşitsizliği, gelir dağılımı
Citation - WoS: 2
Citation - Scopus: 1
Who Wants Left-Wing Policies? Economic Preferences and Political Cleavages in Turkey
(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2020) Yagcı, Alper H.; Tekgüç, Hasan; Harma, Mehmet; Harma, Mehmet; Tekgüç, Hasan
We administer a survey of economic policy preferences to a representative sample of the Turkish voting-age population. We show that policy preferences are distributed in non-linear ways that are at odds with what could be expected from a conventional left-right division. We find that while objective socioeconomic differences are bad at predicting economic policy preferences, the latter are distinctly associated with politically salient cleavages built on religiosity and ethnicity. We also examine how preferences of each party's voters compare with party programmes.
Citation - WoS: 15
Citation - Scopus: 17
Women's Tertiary Education Masks the Gender Wage Gap in Turkey
(Springer, 2017) Tekgüç, Hasan; Eryar, Deger; Cindoglu, Dilek
This paper investigates the gender wage gap for full-time formal sector employees disaggregated by education level. The gap between the labor force participation rate of women with tertiary education and those with lower levels of education is substantial. There is no such gap for men. Hence existing gender wage gap studies for Turkey where we observe lopsided labor force participation rates by education levels compare two very different populations. We disaggregate the whole sample by education level to create more homogenous sub-groups. For Turkey without disaggregation the gender wage gap was 13% in 2011 and women are significantly over-qualified relative to men on observed characteristics. Once we disaggregate the sample by education level we show that the gender wage gap is 24% for less educated women and 9% for women with tertiary education in full-time formal employment. Observed characteristics only explain 1 % of this gap in absolute terms. We further disaggregate the data by public and private employment. The gender gap is higher in the private sector. However women with tertiary education in the public sector are significantly better qualified compared to men and consequently the adjusted gender wage gap is higher for women with tertiary education in the public sector. Our estimates also indicate a rise in the gender wage gap between 2004 and 2011.