Uluslararası Ticaret ve Finans Bölümü Koleksiyonu

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://gcris.khas.edu.tr/handle/20.500.12469/67

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Citation Count: 8
An analysis of the unemployment selected MENA countries and Turkey
(2008) Bilgin, Mehmet Hüseyin; Kilicarslan, Ismihan N, I. N.
One of the most important economic and social problems of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the high rate of unemployment. Unemployment in the selected MENA countries like Egypt Israel Jordan and Turkey are examined as well as the relationship between growth and unemployment. For this reason active labor market policies should be designed to address job creation in addition to structural reform in labor markets.
Citation Count: 5
Art investment: hedging or safe haven through financial crises
(Springer, 2020) Öztürkkal, Belma; Toğan-Eğrican, Aslı
We analyze long-term art auction sales data focusing on and around financial crisis periods with other investment returns to understand whether art can be considered a safe haven during volatile times or a hedging option in general by analyzing art auction data in a volatile emerging market. Our findings suggest Turkish art returns are either negatively correlated or at low correlation with other investments, including the equity market. We have the view that art can be considered a hedging mechanism on average to enhance returns and to decrease the risk of portfolios and improve diversification. However, we do not discard the safe-haven hypothesis, either. Although the auction data on the crisis period is limited, results of and around crisis periods show art returns are positively correlated with various volatility indices. In addition, the number of art transactions also increases after the crisis years, which may be a sign of liquidity requirement of some investors and an opportunity for buyers. The benefit is visible especially during years of contractions, which do not end with a very severe crisis, since the art auction market liquidity dries if the crisis is severe.
Citation Count: 29
Bank credit in uncertain times: Islamic vs. conventional banks
(Elsevier Ltd, 2020) Bilgin, Mehmet Hüseyin; Danışman, Gamze Öztürk; Demir, Ender; Tarazi, Amine
This paper explores whether the impact of economic uncertainty on credit growth differs for Islamic vs. conventional banks. Using a sample of 416 banks (58 Islamic and 358 conventional) in 12 countries, the findings indicate that an increase in economic uncertainty significantly decreases the credit growth of conventional banks but does not have any significant impact on Islamic banks’ credit growth. Our results are robust to alternative specifications and addressing endogeneity concerns using GMM estimators. We further observe that our findings are stronger for the following countries: (1) countries with explicit deposit insurance protection system for Islamic banks, (2) lower foreign dominance, and (3) countries with a higher share of deposits and assets in Islamic banks.
Citation Count: 20
A behavioral analysis of investor diversification
(Routledge Journals Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2014) Fuertes, Ana-Maria; Muradoğlu, Gülnur; Öztürkkal, Belma
This paper studies the link between individual investors' portfolio diversification levels and various personal traits that proxy informational advantages and overconfidence. The analysis is based on objective data from the largest Turkish brokerage house tracking 59951 individual investors' accounts with a total of 3248654 million transactions over the period 2008-2010. Wealthier highly educated older investors working in the finance sector and those trading relatively often show higher diversification levels possibly because they are better equipped to obtain and process information. Finance professionals married investors and those placing high-volume orders through investment centers show poorer diversification possibly as a reflection of overconfidence. Our analysis reveals important nonlinear effects implying that the marginal impact of overconfidence on diversification is not uniform across investors but varies according to the investor's information gathering and processing abilities.
Citation Count: 11
Behavioral Biases Of Finance Professionals: Turkish Evidence
(Elsevier Science Bv, 2016) Kiymaz, Halil; Öztürkkal, Belma; Akkemik, K. Ali
This study extends the existing literature on the determinants of behavioral biases of Turkish finance sector professionals. It examines the impact of various personal and objective attributes of finance sector professionals on their risk choices derived from their portfolio allocation and personal wealth data. Utilizing survey data from 206 professionals we find that these professionals take higher risk in the form of investment in equities when investing in home country firms (geographic bias) and investing in firms headquartered in their home towns (home bias). Those relying on their own predictions when making investment decisions and those with emotional biases invest less in equities. Findings further show that younger professionals professional with less education with lower risk aversion and with single broker accounts are more likely to invest in equities. We also find that those with higher expected returns invest more in equities showing overconfidence. Subsample analysis results for finance professionals suggest that portfolio managers and brokerage company professionals display differing risk taking behavior. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Citation Count: 11
Bivariate Pseudo-Gompertz distribution and concomitants of its order statistics
(Elsevier Science Bv, 2013) Gebizlioğlu, Ömer Lütfi; Gebizlioğlu, Ömer Lütfi
This paper presents a new bivariate Pseudo-Gompertz distribution that sprouts from the classical Gompertz distribution and possesses the features of pseudo-distribution functions. In addition to some standard properties of the proposed distribution distributions of order statistics and their concomitants for samples drawn from the new distribution are obtained. The survival and hazard functions of the concomitants are shown and their values are tabled. Interpretations of the results are given in connection with risk events and risk management. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Citation Count: 0
Choice of finance in an emerging market: The impact of independent decisions politics and religion
(Springer International Publishing, 2017) Davutyan, Nurhan; Öztürkkal, Belma
This paper is based on a KONDA 1 Research and Consultancy 2 survey conducted in May 2014 on 2607 people forming a representative sample of the Turkish population. It focuses on how people’s religious and political characteristics impact the independence of their decision making regarding saving and borrowing. An earlier study by Davutyan and Ozturkkal (2016) reports saving and borrowing decisions strongly correlate with income, education, marital status and region within country. Furthermore, 54% of those surveyed did not save and the main motivation for those who saved was to finance children’s education or home purchase. Religious people and those with a conservative lifestyle are less likely to borrow from family and friends. Older, married and working individuals are more likely to have difficulty paying back loans. According to the results of this survey, religious individuals are less likely to independently decide on their investment choices. Thus, religious people tend to make investment decisions together with family, elderly and respected relatives.
Citation Count: 3
Competition in Turkish Banking: Impacts of Restructuring and the Global Financial Crisis
(Wiley, 2014) Yıldırım, Canan
This paper investigates the evolution of competition in the Turkish banking industry by taking into account the transformation in the sector in the aftermath of the country's financial crisis of 2000 to 2001 and the global financial crisis. The results demonstrate that the level of competition in the system did not increase despite the restructuring that was undertaken and the increased foreign bank participation. In addition the level of competition in the sector deteriorated during the global crisis. There is also some evidence that the market power of banks with different ownership characteristics varied and did not converge over time.
Citation Count: 4
Computing finite time non-ruin probability and some joint distributions in discrete time risk model with exchangeable claim occurrences
(Elsevier Science, 2017) Gebizlioğlu, Ömer Lütfi; Gebizlioğlu, Ömer Lütfi
In this paper we study a discrete time risk model based on exchangeable dependent claim occurrences. In particular we obtain expressions for the finite time non-ruin probability and the joint distribution of the time to ruin the surplus immediately before ruin and the deficit at ruin. An illustration of the results is given and some implications of the results are provided. Comparisons are made with the corresponding results for the classical compound binomial model of independent and identically distributed claim occurrences. (C) 2016 Elsevier E.V. All rights reserved.
Citation Count: 14
Determinants of Saving-Borrowing Decisions and Financial Inclusion in a High Middle Income Country: The Turkish Case
(Routledge Journals Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2016) Davutyan, Nurhan; Öztürkkal, Belma
We use a representative survey of the Turkish household sector and investigate factors impinging on saving-borrowing behavior. We run four probit regressions to elucidate (i) the saving decision (ii) asset choice or portfolio composition for those who save (iii) the bank loan decision and lastly (iv) the formal versus informal borrowing decision. We find income education marital status and region within country strongly correlate with those decisions. We offer some insights regarding the influence of variables like rural to urban migrant status and religious belief on saving and borrowing decisions. We discuss the long-term implications of our findings on the Turkish household savings performance.
Citation Count: 7
Does financial flexibility enhance firm value? A comparative study between developed and emerging countries
(VGTU, 2020) Bilyay Erdoğan, Seda
This paper investigates the effect of financial flexibility on firm value, on a comparative basis between developed and emerging countries in Europe. Our dataset covers 4,334 companies from 15 developed and 1,436 companies from 6 emerging countries in Europe for the period between 2000 and 2016. First, depending on companies’ maintenance of leverage that is below-predicted levels for a successive number of years, I identify the financially flexible companies in the sample. Second, I examine whether financial flexibility affects firm value. Our results demonstrate that firms’ financial flexibility positively contributes to firm value in all estimations. Furthermore, this study presents unprecedented evidence that the effect of financial flexibility on firm value is more significant for emerging countries when compared to developed countries in Europe. Moreover, I demonstrate for the first time that firm characteristics, including firm size and age, which proxy for asymmetric information within a company, negatively moderate the relationship between flexibility and firm value. Managers, both in developed and in emerging countries, who aim to surge their firm value up, should give importance to the maintenance of financial flexibility in their capital structure decisions. Last, managers of relatively smaller and younger companies should put more emphasis on becoming financially flexible if they want to improve their firms’ value.
Citation Count: 8
Does mood affect institutional herding?
(Elsevier, 2020) Gavriilidis, Konstantinos; Kallinterakis, Vasileios; Öztürkkal, Belma
Drawing on a unique data set of daily portfolio holdings for Turkish mutual funds we investigate the relationship between mood and institutional herding on the premises of various established mood proxies (weekend effect; holiday effect; Ramadan; sunshine). Results indicate that fund managers in Turkey herd significantly, with their herding growing in magnitude as the number of active funds per stock rises and appearing stronger on the buy-than the sell-side. Although the relationship of mood with institutional herding occasionally assumes the correct sign as per theoretical expectations, institutional herding is found to be insignificantly different across various mood states, thus denoting that mood does not impact the propensity of fund managers to herd. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Citation Count: 44
Economic Policy Uncertainty And Bank Credit Growth: Evidence From European Banks
(Elsevier B.V., 2020) Ersan, Oğuz; Ersan, Oğuz; Demir, Ender
Using a sample of 2977 private and listed banks in the EU-5 countries (the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Italy, France) for the years 2009–2018, this paper explores the impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on credit growth. Using panel data fixed effects methodology and controlling for endogeneity using two-step difference GMM estimators, our findings indicate that uncertainty in economic policies hampers the credit growth of European banks. Our bank type-based analyses indicate that the effect is mainly valid for cooperative banks. Additional analyses imply that the negative impact of EPU on credit growth is more pronounced in civil law countries, increases with debt maturity, and weakens for banks with a larger number of employees and branches. Furthermore, the unfavorable effects are stronger in well-capitalized banks, banks with foreign subsidiaries, and banks with a higher share of wholesale funding. We also provide several policy implications for different economic actors.
Citation Count: 62
Economic policy uncertainty, stakeholder engagement, and environmental, social, and governance practices: The moderating effect of competition
(Wiley, 2020) Vural-Yavaş, Çiğdem
his paper investigates the effect of the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on corporate environmental, social, and governance practices (ESG), using 6,562 firm-year observations from 15 developed European countries covering the period from 2004 to 2017. The results show that during periods of high uncertainty, firms increase their overall ESG performance, corporate environmental performance, and performance in governance. The relationship is valid for emission, resource use, workforce, management, and corporate social responsibility (CSR) strategy subdimensions of ESG. Furthermore, during periods of high uncertainty, firms operating in concentrated industries increase their overall ESG activities and corporate environmental performance. These results suggest that firms use ESG practices as risk-reducing activities like insurance, during high periods of uncertainty. Overall, consistent with the stakeholder theory, the results indicate that firms increase their ESG practices not only to reduce corporate risk-taking but also to follow value-increasing activities during periods of high uncertainty, implying an improved stakeholder engagement.
Citation Count: 10
Efficiency analysis of Black sea container seaports: application of an integrated MCDM approach
(Routledge, 2020) Görçün, Ömer Faruk
The current paper carries out an examination about the selection of the proper container seaport, which in the Black sea region. This paper focuses on a research question. Is it possible to apply multi-criteria decision-making methods that can be applied more easily than the DEA technique for decision-makers? In order to determine the best performance analysis technique that can give successful results, two-hybrid multi-criteria decision-making models were selected and operational performances of the container ports in the Black Sea region were analyzed with the help of these integrated approaches. While the first MCDM model consists of the entropy and OCRA technique, the second hybrid model consists of the Entropy and EATWIOS method. The main aim of this paper is to discuss whether these proposed hybrid models can be implemented to make an effective performance analysis for the maritime industry. The second aim of this paper is to evaluate the Black sea container seaports with the help of this suggested model. The study reveals that the proposed MCDM models can be implemented for container port selection successfully and easily and both of them have given very closer results to each other in aspects of the evaluation of the criteria and options.
Citation Count: 10
Efficiency in Turkish banking: post-restructuring evidence
(Routledge Journals Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2017) Davutyan, Nurhan; Yıldırım, Canan
Turkish banking sector went through a significant restructuring process in the aftermath of the country's financial crisis of 2000-2001. In this paper we analyze the evolution of banking performance using a novel approach due to Ray [(2007). Shadow Profit Maximization and a Measure of Overall Inefficiency. Journal of Productivity Analysis 27 231-236]. We derive shadow unrealized profit scores' as well as shadow input-output prices' for each year and bank in the sector from 2002 to 2011. We argue these scores operationalize the Hicksian concept of monopolistic quiet life'. We provide some evidence the sector came closer to the zero profit condition' as well as displaying a closer approximation to the law of one price' over time. We show the variability of these shadow prices' essentially coincides with that of corresponding actual prices. We utilize shadow price information to show that business models and competitive choices of banks differ across ownership types with foreign banks competing on the broadest front compared to state-owned and privately owned Turkish banks.
Citation Count: 3
The Government-Sponsored Enterprises
(John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 2011) Acharya, Viral V.; Öncü, T. Sabri; Richardson, Matthew; Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn; White, Lawrence J.
[Abstract Not Available]
Citation Count: 3
Information cascades, short-selling constraints, and herding in equity markets
(Borsa İstanbul Anonim Şirketi, 2020) Tiniç, Murat; Iqbal, Muhammad Sabeeh; Mahmud, Syed F.
This paper examines the relationship between informed trading and herding in Borsa İstanbul. Our firm-level cross-sectional analysis asserts that informed trading can significantly increase future herding levels. Furthermore, we show that the relationship between informed trading and herding intensifies under short-selling restrictions. Our results confirm the predictions of the informational cascades framework where the individuals disregard their private information to follow others. We show that information cascades are relevant both for buy-side herding and sell-side herding. Short-selling restrictions may reinforce the herding behaviour since informed investors may not be able to clear out potential price misalignments.
Citation Count: 2
Informed trading, order flow shocks and the cross section of expected returns in Borsa Istanbul
(Routledge Journals, 2020) Tiniç, Murat; Salih, Aslihan
This paper examines the relationship between information asymmetry and stock returns in Borsa Istanbul. For all stocks that are traded in Borsa Istanbul between March 2005 and April 2017, we estimate the probability of informed trading (PIN) to proxy for information asymmetry.? Firm-level cross-sectional regressions indicate a statistically insignificant relationship between PIN estimates and future returns. Moreover, univariate and multivariate portfolio analyses assert that investors that hold stocks that have high information asymmetry do not obtain significant future returns. Consequently, our results suggest that information asymmetry proxied by PIN is a firm-specific risk and can be eliminated with portfolio diversification. Findings are robust to different factorizations in estimating PIN and free of any bias due to trade classification algorithms, boundary solutions, floating-point exceptions and symmetric?order flow shocks.
Citation Count: 1
International financial crises and the political economy of financial reforms in Turkey: 1994-2009
(2009) Şakar, Birgül
This study1 holds for the formation of international financial crisis and political factors for economic crisis in Turkey are evaluated in chronological order. The international arena and relevant studies conducted in Turkey work in the literature are assessed. The main purpose of the study is to hold the linkage between the crises and political stability in Turkey in details and to examine the position of Turkey in this regard. The introduction part follows the literature survey on the models explaining causes and results of the crises the second part of the study. In the third part the formations of the world financial crises are studied. The fourth part financial crisis in Turkey in 1994 2000 2001 and 2008 are reviewed and their political reasons are analyzed. In the last part of the study the results and recommendations are held. Political administrations have laid the grounds for an economic crisis in Turkey. In this study the emergence of an economic crisis in Turkey and the developments after the crisis are chronologically examined and an explanation is offered as to the cause and effect relationship between the political administration and economic equilibrium in the country. Economic crises can be characterized as follows: high prices of consumables high interest rates current account deficits budget deficits structural defects in government finance rising inflation and fixed currency applications rising government debt declining savings rates and increased dependency on foreign capital stock. Entering into the conditions of crisis during a time when the exchange value of the country's national currency was rising speculative finance movements and shrinking of foreign currency reserves happened due to expectations for devaluation and because of foreign investors' resistance to financing national debt and a financial risk occurs. During the February 2001 crisis and immediately following devaluation and reduction of value occurred in Turkey's stock market. While changing over to the system of floating exchange rates in the midst of this crisis the effects of the crisis on the real economy are discussed in this study. Administered politics include financial reforms such as the rearrangement of banking systems. These reforms followed with the provision of foreign financial support. There have been winners and losers in the imbalance of income distribution which has recently become more evident in Turkey's fragile economy.

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