Data-Driven Modeling of Traffic Flow in Macroscopic Network Systems

Abstract

Urban traffic modeling is essential for understanding and mitigating congestion, yet existing approaches face a trade-off between realism and scalability. Microscopic agent-based simulators capture individual vehicle behavior but are computationally intensive and hard to calibrate at scale. Macroscopic models, while more efficient, often rely on strong assumptions, such as fixed origin-destination flows, or oversimplify network dynamics. In this work, we propose a data-driven macroscopic model that simulates traffic as a discrete-time load-exchange process over flow networks. The model captures key phenomena such as bottlenecks, spillbacks, and adaptive load redistribution using only road-type attributes, network structure, and observed traffic density. Parameter learning is performed via evolutionary optimization, allowing the model to adapt to both synthetic and real-world conditions without assuming latent travel demand. We evaluate the framework on synthetic grid-like networks and on real traffic data from London, Istanbul, and New York. The resulting framework provides a scalable and interpretable alternative for urban traffic forecasting, balancing predictive accuracy with computational efficiency across diverse network conditions.