Potential effects of the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism on the Turkish economy

dc.authoridYeldan, A Erinc/0000-0002-3123-4374
dc.authoridAcar, Sevil/0000-0001-5535-8673
dc.authoridAcar, Sevil/0000-0001-5535-8673
dc.authoridAsici, Ahmet Atil/0000-0002-5067-6143
dc.authorwosidYeldan, A Erinc/AAA-4707-2022
dc.authorwosidAcar, Sevil/AAM-4824-2021
dc.authorwosidAcar, Sevil/N-7478-2017
dc.authorwosidAsici, Ahmet Atil/C-6612-2013
dc.contributor.authorAcar, Sevil
dc.contributor.authorAsici, Ahmet Atil
dc.contributor.authorYeldan, A. Erinc
dc.date.accessioned2023-10-19T15:12:37Z
dc.date.available2023-10-19T15:12:37Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.department-temp[Acar, Sevil] Bogazici Univ, Istanbul, Turkey; [Asici, Ahmet Atil] Istanbul Tech Univ, Istanbul, Turkey; [Yeldan, A. Erinc] Kadir Has Univ, Istanbul, Turkeyen_US
dc.description.abstractIn December 2019, the EU announced the European Green Deal (EGD) to create a climate-neutral continent by 2050. Accordingly, the EU Emission Trading System (ETS) will be revised to maintain economic growth against possible losses in competitiveness, leading to carbon leakage. Carbon border adjustment (CBA) is one of the mechanisms proposed to tackle the carbon leakage problem. In this paper, we provide a first-order estimate of the potential impacts of a possible CBA across production sectors and build a dynamic, multi-sectoral applied general equilibrium (AGE) model to study the overall macroeconomic impact of the EGD on the Turkish economy. Then, we extend our analysis to document the potential benefits of a more active climate policy. The model is in the Walrasian tradition wherein aggregate supply and demand actions are simulated with the interplay of relative prices to bring equilibrium in the markets for goods, for labor, and for foreign exchange. Constructed around 24 production sectors, the model accommodates flexible, multi-level functional forms to link production activities with gaseous emissions, a government entity to maintain taxation, and public expenditures, as well as administration of environmental policy instruments, all within an open-economy macroeconomic environment. Our results suggest that the potential adverse impact of the CBA on the Turkish economy would range between 2.7 and 3.6% loss of the GDP by 2030 over the business-as-(un)usual base path. We also document that under an alternative scenario through which Turkey is modeled as an active agent in the international climate policy arena embedding decarbonization into her official macroeconomic policy agenda, she can achieve a superior pathway for national income and a reduced carbon burden.en_US
dc.identifier.citation16
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s10668-021-01779-1en_US
dc.identifier.endpage8194en_US
dc.identifier.issn1387-585X
dc.identifier.issn1573-2975
dc.identifier.issue6en_US
dc.identifier.pmid34483717en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85113940990en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1
dc.identifier.startpage8162en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-01779-1
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12469/5493
dc.identifier.volume24en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000691629800005en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityN/A
dc.khas20231019-WoSen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherSpringeren_US
dc.relation.ispartofEnvironment Development and Sustainabilityen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.subjectEuropean green dealen_US
dc.subjectCarbon border adjustmenten_US
dc.subjectGrowthEn_Us
dc.subjectTurkeyen_US
dc.subjectInput-output methodologyen_US
dc.subjectGrowth
dc.subjectApplied general equilibriumen_US
dc.titlePotential effects of the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism on the Turkish economyen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dspace.entity.typePublication

Files

Original bundle

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name:
5493.pdf
Size:
1.23 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Tam Metin / Full Text