Forecasting Electricity Demand for Turkey: Modeling Periodic Variations and Demand Segregation

Loading...
Thumbnail Image

Date

2017

Authors

Yükseltan, Ergün
Yücekaya, Ahmet
Bilge, Ayşe Hümeyra

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Publisher

Elsevier

Open Access Color

OpenAIRE Downloads

OpenAIRE Views

Research Projects

Organizational Units

Journal Issue

Abstract

In deregulated electricity markets the independent system operator (ISO) oversees the power system and manages the supply and demand balancing process. In a typical day the ISO announces the electricity demand forecast for the next day and gives participants an option to prepare offers to meet the demand. In order to have a reliable power system and successful market operation it is crucial to estimate the electricity demand accurately. In this paper we develop an hourly demand forecasting method on annual weekly and daily horizons using a linear model that takes into account the harmonics of these variations and the modulation of diurnal periodic variations by seasonal variations. The electricity demand exhibits cyclic behavior with different seasonal characteristics. Our model is based solely on sinusoidal variations and predicts hourly variations without using any climatic or econometric information. The method is applied to the Turkish power market on data for the period 2012-2014 and predicts the demand over daily and weekly horizons within a 3% error margin in the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) norm. We also discuss the week day/weekend/holiday consumption profiles to infer the proportion of industrial and domestic electricity consumption. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Description

Keywords

Time series analysis, Fourier series, Electricity demand for Turkey, Demand segregation, Load forecast

Turkish CoHE Thesis Center URL

Fields of Science

Citation

68

WoS Q

Q1

Scopus Q

Q1

Source

Volume

193

Issue

Start Page

287

End Page

296