Forecasting the Coal Production: Hubbert Curve Application on Turkey's Lignite Fields

Abstract

The dependence on imported energy sources is one of the biggest challenges that Turkey and many other similar countries face in the 21st Century and the gap between production and consumption cannot be decreased without increasing the domestic production. Forecasting of domestic energy production therefore plays a vital role in order to be able to develop sound energy policies towards maintaining sustainable development. However although this question is essential in this respect especially for import dependent countries the previous literature is surprisingly scarce. This paper therefore will be important for future studies on estimation of energy production. We first analyzed lignite production of Turkish Coal Enterprises (TKI) from a historical perspective and then forecasted the future production by using the Hubbert curve depletion rate and decline curve methodologies. We concluded that the largest fields are about to enter a declining phase of production in upcoming years and most of the reserves will remain untapped if business-as-usual continues in the future. The methodology and interpretations may be used by other developing countries which deeply suffer from energy import dependency.