Forecasting the Coal Production: Hubbert Curve Application on Turkey's Lignite Fields

dc.contributor.authorBerk, Istemi
dc.contributor.authorEdiger, Volkan S.
dc.date.accessioned2019-06-27T08:01:37Z
dc.date.available2019-06-27T08:01:37Z
dc.date.issued2016
dc.departmentFakülteler, Mühendislik ve Doğa Bilimleri Fakültesi, Enerji Sistemleri Mühendisliği Bölümüen_US
dc.description.abstractThe dependence on imported energy sources is one of the biggest challenges that Turkey and many other similar countries face in the 21st Century and the gap between production and consumption cannot be decreased without increasing the domestic production. Forecasting of domestic energy production therefore plays a vital role in order to be able to develop sound energy policies towards maintaining sustainable development. However although this question is essential in this respect especially for import dependent countries the previous literature is surprisingly scarce. This paper therefore will be important for future studies on estimation of energy production. We first analyzed lignite production of Turkish Coal Enterprises (TKI) from a historical perspective and then forecasted the future production by using the Hubbert curve depletion rate and decline curve methodologies. We concluded that the largest fields are about to enter a declining phase of production in upcoming years and most of the reserves will remain untapped if business-as-usual continues in the future. The methodology and interpretations may be used by other developing countries which deeply suffer from energy import dependency.en_US]
dc.identifier.citation11
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.resourpol.2016.10.002en_US
dc.identifier.endpage203
dc.identifier.issn0301-4207en_US
dc.identifier.issn1873-7641en_US
dc.identifier.issn0301-4207
dc.identifier.issn1873-7641
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-84991693746en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1
dc.identifier.startpage193en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12469/420
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2016.10.002
dc.identifier.volume50en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000390826500020en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ1
dc.institutionauthorEdiger, Volkan S.en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherElsevier Scienceen_US
dc.relation.journalResources Policyen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.subjectProduction Forecastingen_US
dc.subjectHubbert Curveen_US
dc.subjectLigniteen_US
dc.subjectTurkeyen_US
dc.titleForecasting the Coal Production: Hubbert Curve Application on Turkey's Lignite Fieldsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dspace.entity.typePublication

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